The Delta variant presses the accelerator, causing the curve of the Covid epidemic to rise throughout Italy. This is confirmed by the data released today by the Ministry of Health, which make it possible to make a comparison with 7 and 14 days ago. In the last 24 hours the number of positives has gone from 907 to 1,010, the victims of Covid are 14 while yesterday there were 24. Numbers that experts read as a dissociated trend, the one to which British Prime Minister Boris Johnson relied on the reopenings: the variant increases cases but not hospitalizations and deaths. The same Minister of Health Roberto Speranza today stressed that until two and a half months ago "we had 30,000 people in hospital and today they are 1,500, 95% less. We had 3,800 people in intensive care and today we are under 190,well over -90% ".
For the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Calculation 'Mauro Picone' of the National Research Council (Cnr-Iac), with the numbers released today, "the trend of increase of the curve estimated for the percentage of positives is confirmed to molecular tests nationwide ". In 28 provinces, moreover, it is noted "that in the last seven days the incidence has increased by more than 50% compared to the previous seven days" and that "in 14 of them the increase is greater than 100%".
The increase in cases is observed in particular in the five provinces "under special surveillance of recent days", namely Caltanissetta, Ascoli Piceno, Lodi, Naples and Verona.
As for the incidence values in the 14 provinces where the current value is greater than 10 cases per week per 100,000 inhabitants, there are: Caltanissetta (73), Ascoli Piceno (69), Lodi (28), Naples and Verona (22). ), Grosseto (20), Cosenza (17), Caserta (15), Belluno (14), Lecce and Sassari (13), Rimini (11), Bolzano and La Spezia (10).
In short, the Delta variant is taking hold in Italy, even if the data collected are still insufficient to draw a precise scenario for the next few weeks.
However, attention is high and experts warn that the time has not yet come to loosen the grip on measures against Covid.
The president of the Higher Health Council and coordinator of the Technical Scientific Committee (CTS) Franco Locatelli warns: "The virus is always the same, if anything, the two most widespread variants, Alpha and Delta, are more contagious than the strain from Wuhan. Not however, we make the mistake of thinking of a virus which, although it has changed characteristics, is characterized by less power to cause serious illness ".. According to Locatelli" there is no risk of a fourth wave "because" what has changed it is the state of immunization of the country. And this makes it possible to have greater protection from infection ". As for the characteristics of the Delta variant, "in addition to the greater contagiousness, it seems to have attenuated or completely lost some characteristics: for example the loss of taste andsense of smell are no longer complained by those who get sick. The most frequent symptoms are fever, runny nose, headache and sore throat. But this does not prevent it from causing equally serious pathologies ".