Black Widow's release is a crash test for Marvel, Disney, and theaters nearly months away

Two years ago, after a string of successes and astronomical recipes, the Marvel superhero films had taken what was to be a short hiatus.

When this absence from the big screen, prolonged by the coronavirus pandemic, ends with the release of

Black Widow

, Hollywood will have its eyes riveted on Marvel Studios to see if they still have the baraka.

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"I would say that they are (...) at a rather crucial turning point"

, judges Kendall Phillips, professor at Syracuse University and specialist in pop culture. “

The central question is: can Marvel repeat the feat?

".

Black Widow

gives the character of Natasha Romanoff, the Russian killer turned superheroine played by Scarlett Johansson, her own spin-off. The film's release had been put on hold in May 2020, with parent company Disney waiting for theaters to reopen. It will be the first of a string of new Marvel films due out by the end of 2023: no less than 12 feature films expected, not to mention the TV series released during the pandemic or to be broadcast soon.

"

If it weren't for the Covid

"

Even for a franchise that has in the past given three big Hollywood productions a year (including

Avengers: Endgame

, which briefly overtook

Avatar

as the most lucrative film in history), it's at a breakneck pace.

And this big comeback is expected while spectators' appetite for dark rooms remains uncertain.

Despite the recent success of

Without a Sound 2

and

Fast and Furious 9

, only 80% of movie theaters in North America are open, box office revenue remains well below pre-pandemic numbers and fears. linked to Covid-19 variants are real.

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"

I'm sure

Black Widow

would do 10-15% more this weekend if all theaters were open and it wasn't for the Covid,

" says David A. Gross of Franchise Entertainment Research, who is specializes in film industry analysis.

“

But this is the world we live in

”.

Marvel's comeback is also complicated by the loss of several of its stars.

Robert Downey Jr and Chris Evans have quit their roles as Iron Man and Captain America.

As for Chadwick Boseman, he died of cancer last year.

His role in

Black Panther

will not be reassigned for the sequel slated for next year, which will need to strike a balance between honoring the actor's legacy and capitalizing on the first film's nearly $ 1.4 billion worldwide revenue.

In the absence of the three stars, the next films will unfold the story of lesser-known characters from comics, such as Shang-Chi, as well as the Eternals.

Some of these characters have been promoted to leading roles in recent Marvel series on the Disney + streaming platform, like WandaVision and Loki.

"

In the very, very long term,

" David A. Gross said he fears that this multiplicity of adaptations will "

dilute the value

" of films.

But “

I would never bet against Marvel.

They basically exceeded every expectation,

”he says.

"

Marvel is back

"

For Professor Phillips, part of Marvel's success can be explained by the fact that the studios create '

event

'

films that

appeal to 'the

average viewer, who has never read Marvel Comics, has not watched the cartoons. , did not play video games

”. "

What is complicated is that they have to try to keep these people with them, to attract a new generation, all this while not having

" any more the famous characters, he explains.

Taking over from

Captain Marvel

, released in 2019 and which had marked by giving the first role to a woman,

Black Widow

will be the first film in the series to be entirely directed by a woman, Cate Shortland, with two women in the roles of foreground: Scarlett Johansson and Florence Pugh.

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Analysts are anxiously awaiting to see if this will be the first film since the pandemic to surpass $ 100 million on its first weekend.

That would be way less than the $ 350 million from the release of

Avengers: Endgame,

and the feature's simulcast on Disney + could have a negative impact on revenue.

But if he can beat

Fast and Furious 9's

recent 70 million

, he'll send the message that "

Marvel is back, they're in theaters, and that's where fans want to see Marvel first.

" , says marketing firm Comscore expert Paul Dergarabedian.