"We are at the start of something that looks like an epidemic wave," said Minister of Health Olivier Véran on Radio Jen because of the spread of the Delta variant, a "new enemy because it is much more contagious".
According to him, if "the hospital load for the moment does not increase", it "risks to happen the same thing as last summer, that is to say that the young people will infect the less young and, because not everyone is vaccinated, you will have an increase in health pressure, an increase in serious cases and hospitalizations ”.
💥 “We are facing a new enemy because it is more contagious.
It looks like an epidemic wave […] If we did not have a vaccine we would face a much larger wave than the first one ”
▶ ️ @ olivierveran au🎙️ de @frhaz in #ForumRadioJ
👀Revoir: https: // t. co / NPZdy7XQtK pic.twitter.com/L26BFeK72B
- RADIO J (@RadioJFrance) July 11, 2021
The catastrophic scenario of a fourth hospital wave is slowly emerging, concludes Olivier Véran, relying on a "small increase" in the activity of SOS Médecins.
The nearly 4,700 cases recorded on Saturday "could grow to 6,000 in a week, 10,000 in 15 days and rise above 20,000 in early August if we do not act," he said.
Read alsoCovid-19: how the second wave was discreetly invited last summer
The minister also relies on the example of neighboring Great Britain, with which France has "four weeks of delay".
The country has recovered to 30,000 daily cases, and hospital pressure "begins to increase by 30-40% per week, with hospitals already deprogramming care".
Compulsory vaccination of caregivers is "a line of thought"
On a more optimistic note, Olivier Véran recalled that, according to the models of the Institut Pasteur, if we manage to "reduce the current epidemic dynamic by 15 or 20%, we could postpone a wave of hospitals, reduce it and save many lives ”, pleading for the respect of barrier gestures and mass vaccination.
A few hours from a defense council and an intervention by President Macron, compulsory vaccination for caregivers "is a line of thought" to intensify the campaign, he stressed.
“If we did not have vaccines, we would face a much larger wave than the 1st” in spring 2020, he further explained.
Vaccination is according to him "the major tool against confinement", even if it is "not in favor" of making it compulsory for all French people over 12 years old, as recommended by the Academy of Medicine. .
"We are examining all avenues to avoid whatever happens to have to close the country," concluded the Minister.