Climate: 195 countries look at IPCC forecasts

A long-awaited study.

Seven years after the last assessment, the new report from the IPCC, the United Nations group of climate experts, begins Monday to be examined by UN climate experts.

It intervenes in the midst of an avalanche of disasters that have put the impacts of climate change back on the front page, from exceptional rainfall in China and Germany to frenzied temperatures in Canada.

“For years, we had warned that it was possible, that all of this was going to happen,” insisted the UN climate manager, Patricia Espinosa, during the opening ceremony on Monday.

With less than 100 days of COP26 in Glasgow (Scotland) in November, “I say this to decision-makers: science does not allow you to see the world as you would like it to be, it shows the world as it is.

It's not politics, it's reality, ”she added.

"We are not on track to achieve the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting climate change to 1.5 ° C by the end of the century. In fact, we're on the opposite track, heading for more than a 3 ° C rise" - @ PEspinosaC at the start of IPCC #ClimateReport discussions pic.twitter.com/4sEsnvaKR9

- UN Climate Change (@UNFCCC) July 26, 2021

And “the reality is that we are not on track to meet the Paris agreement target of limiting global warming to +1.5 ° C by the end of the century.

In fact, we are on the opposite path, we are heading for over + 3 ° C.

We must urgently change direction before it is too late, ”she insisted.

“This assessment report is crucial for the success of the Glasgow climate conference,” added the head of the World Weather Organization, Petteri Taalas.

Shocking images

Despite the shock of the images of disasters, some fear that the renewed interest in the climate will only be fleeting as actions crucial for the future of humanity are demanded from the leaders of the planet during this postponed meeting of one year because of the Covid-19.

"As soon as these tragedies are over, we will probably forget again and continue as before", particularly worried on July 17 on Twitter the activist Greta Thunberg, who has led millions of young people in the streets in recent years to demand governments to drastically and immediately reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Right now everyone is talking about the climate emergency - and rightly so.

But as soon as these tragedies are over we'll most likely forget about it and move on like before.

Unless we treat the crisis like a crisis all the time, we will not be able to halt the climate emergency.

https://t.co/G9iwAeGeZb

- Greta Thunberg (@GretaThunberg) July 17, 2021

The IPCC report, expected on August 9, whose "summary for decision-makers" will be negotiated line by line behind closed doors in virtual for two weeks, must update its assessment and its climate forecasts: increase in global temperature, rising sea level, intensification of extreme events.

Two other sections are due to be published in early 2022. The one on impacts shows how life on Earth will inevitably be transformed within thirty years, or even sooner.

But it will not happen until after COP26.

By signing the Paris Agreement in 2015, almost all the countries of the planet have committed to reducing CO2 emissions to limit warming "well below" of + 2 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era, if possible +1.5 ° C.

Stay below +1.5 ° C?

While the planet has already warmed by around 1.1 ° C and each fraction of a degree more brings its share of additional extreme events, this threshold of +1.5 ° C has since become the priority objective. many activists and political leaders.

But can we do it?

This is one of the questions that should be answered by the IPCC's assessment of thousands of the most recent scientific studies.

While some doubt that the challenge can be met, others - sometimes for fear of discouraging - insist that it is not impossible.

“Limiting warming to +1.5 ° C is still physically, technically and economically possible.

But not for long if we continue to act too little and too late, ”says Kaisa Kosonen of Greenpeace.

Read alsoGlobal warming: effects "already perceptible and deadly"

"The IPCC told us what the ambition should look like: that every country in the world commits to carbon neutrality and details the plan to achieve it", insisted Monday Joyce Msuya, Deputy Executive Director of the UN -Environment, when the negotiations kick off.

To hope not to cross the threshold of +1.5 ° C, emissions should be reduced by 7.6% on average each year, between 2020 and 2030, according to the UN.

And if 2020 has seen a drop of this magnitude due to the Covid-19 pandemic, a rebound is expected. And the International Energy Agency even predicts record emissions by 2023, given the low share of stimulus packages devoted to clean energy. "But if we don't succeed, if we can reach 1.6 ° C it is better than 1.7 ° C, and 1.7 ° C, it is better than 1.8 ° C", notes the climatologist Robert Vautard, one of the authors of the IPCC.