The steep decline in COVID-19 cases in the UK has thrown the scientific community into confusion and keeps Boris Johnson's government in a state of unease.
He fears that this downward trend will lead citizens to consider the pandemic over and precipitate a sudden change in behavior that will pave the way for the resurgence of the coronavirus.
The European country with the most deaths from the disease (about 129,500) has become a global testing laboratory after the almost total lifting of restrictions in England, which came into force on July 19, but instead of the expected continuity On the rise in infections, just when they exceeded 50,000 a day, the figures reflect a drastic decline for which scientists lack a conclusive explanation.
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The phenomenon is unprecedented in the virus saga, since never before has there been a significant reduction without being due to confinement.
The number two of Public Health England revealed yesterday that the vaccination campaign has prevented 60,000 deaths and some 22 million infections.
As a result, where until recently the authorities calculated peaks of more than 100,000 positives in August, reality suggests that the worst of the third wave may have passed.
Although the recent chain of seven consecutive days of decline came to an end on Wednesday, the increases of the last two days (31,117 yesterday) are well below the numbers of a week ago and
the decline in the seven-day average exceeds 37%.
But the most extraordinary thing is not the speed of the decline, but rather that it coincides with the moment when the sixth country with the most cases on the planet - and twenty-first in population - has decided to risk everything to the vaccination card and conclude the de-escalation. Boris Johnson had promised that the one known as
Freedom Day
(Freedom Day) would not move from July 19, after having been forced to delay it for four weeks due to the incidence of the delta variant. Determined to guarantee it, he activated the machinery at full intensity to ensure that, by then, those over 40 had had the opportunity to receive both doses and, all adults, at least one. The United Kingdom is one of the countries with the most vaccinated in the world, with 55.18% of the population protected with the complete regimen (Spain was 55.7% on Wednesday).
Despite the reservations about contagions that did not stop growing, the prime minister justified his bet to continue with the plan outlined: "If we don't do it now, then when?"
But the decision cost him international derision.
The director of emergencies of the World Health Organization (WHO), Mike Ryan, called his strategy "epidemiological stupidity" and the United States intensified its recommendation to avoid travel to the United Kingdom.
His determination, however, has drawn the British experiment to the attention of a world eager to discover whether vaccines alone are enough to keep the disease under control.
Several people walk across London's Westminster Bridge on Monday.TOLGA AKMEN / AFP
Although the effects of the end of the restrictions should begin to be felt on these dates, 10 days after they came into force, the sense of security caused by the recent reduction threatens to turn complacency into the virus's great ally. The epidemiologist from Imperial College London Neil Ferguson, popularly nicknamed Doctor Confinement for having been one of the voices that had pressed the most for this option in March 2020, acknowledges that it will take weeks to decipher the impact of the de-escalation, but, three after who had predicted 200,000 daily cases in August, currently believes that "the equation has changed at its roots." "And I am sure that by October we will have left the worst behind," he says, although he emphasizes the need for "caution."
The pronounced change in contagion dynamics rules out that the origin is group immunity, since, if so, the evolution would have been more gradual.
Although 9 out of 10 adults have antibodies, either from the vaccine or from having passed the disease, experts deduce that, despite the undeniable contribution of the immunization campaign, citizen behavior has been able to act as a ferment of a phenomenon that has challenged scientific logic.
Fear that the virus will reinforce itself
The risk now is that, if the message that the worst has passed, the population will relax.
One of the theses that are handled is that, due to the imminence of the holidays, the British take less tests, but the index has barely fallen by 10%, so it is not enough to explain the reduction.
It is about individual behavior, but also about variables that are beyond the control of the authorities, such as the weather.
In recent weeks, the United Kingdom has experienced high temperatures that facilitated outdoor meetings, but, towards autumn, indoor meetings will emerge, facilitating the favorite scenario of a virus that, according to epidemiologists, continues to circulate freely.
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Marc Baguelin, a member of the Scientific Group on Influenza Pandemics, admits that it is difficult to explain "such a severe fall in cases and so simultaneous in all areas of England" and, like most experts, identifies specific elements such as the European Football Championship , or school holidays, as great catalysts: “The level of infection will remain relatively low, at least until the schools return. I think we will have a new wave in September, especially since practically the entire school-age population is not vaccinated. But I think we can be optimistic and think that we will probably only see the lowest forecasts materialize. "
The end of the year has been able to play a role not only due to the lesser interaction of students, but also by reducing contact between adults, who no longer see each other daily at the doors of the centers. In fact, preliminary conclusions of the localization and tracking program had ruled out that, since its reopening on March 8, schools and institutes were a source of infection. A report from the University of Oxford published last week endorsed rapid tests as a control method as effective as confinement. "The study shows that many children exposed to COVID in schools are not infected," said its author, David Eyre.