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Did you think the corona was a nightmare?
The next epidemic is closer than you think
The corona plague has left us surprised and unprepared.
Now researchers are making it clear that the next epidemic has actually moved to the corner, and this time - we should prepare for it
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Wednesday, 25 August 2021, 07:07 Updated: 07:41
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If you thought the evil was behind us, we have not very encouraging news for you.
Researchers at Duke University warn that another epidemic on the scale of the corona is likely to hit us within 60 years.
The research team says the number of new diseases spreading to humans could triple over the next few decades.
Scientists warn that while the corona plague may be the deadliest outbreak of the virus since the Spanish flu more than a century ago, chances are it will not be the last.
In fact, for people born in 2000, the chance of living in another epidemic is about 38 percent.
Next, there is a two percent chance that another corona-style epidemic will strike in any given year.
The findings stem from a 400-year data review.
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"The most important recognition from the study is that major epidemics such as the corona and the Spanish flu are relatively plausible," said study author Dr. William Pan. New statistics for measuring the extent and frequency of outbreaks in the last four centuries include a range of deadly pathogens, including epidemics, smallpox, cholera, typhus and new influenza viruses.
Epidemics are not so rare.
Corona virus (Photo: Giphy, KAUST; Ivan Viola)
There is little chance of another epidemic each year
Although the rate at which epidemics have occurred in the past varies greatly, scientists have identified certain patterns.
This allowed them to calculate the chance that a similar scale event might happen again.
For example, Pan's team examined the Spanish flu, which is considered the deadliest epidemic in modern history, killing some 30 million people between 1918 and 1920.
The probability of such an event happening again was between 0.3 percent and 1.9 percent per year over the period of time studied.
In addition, researchers believe that an epidemic of this magnitude will occur in the next 400 years.
However, the rate at which new pathogens like corona (SARS-CoV-2) will be transmitted to humans over the past 50 years has increased, along with the risk of widespread outbreaks.
The likelihood of new disease outbreaks will increase threefold in the coming decades, the study concludes.
Therefore an epidemic similar in extent to Corona can reach within six decades.
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The researchers say that the reasons for the more frequent occurrence of epidemics are related to, among other things, population growth, changes in food systems, environmental degradation and more frequent contact between humans and animals carrying diseases.
However, more in-depth research is needed into why destructive epidemics are becoming more common and how to combat them.
“This points to the importance of early response to disease outbreaks and building capacity to monitor epidemics on a local and global scale, as well as setting a research agenda to understand major outbreaks are becoming more common,” concludes Dr. Penn.
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