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Do ultra-Orthodox cities really have a higher chance of contracting corona?
Two new studies, one recently published in the journal Cities and another study published in the Annals of Regional Science, examine the question of whether overcrowded cities are increasing the spread of epidemics.
The data is surprising
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Bnei Brak
Corona
David Wertheim
Sunday, 29 August 2021, 14:38 Updated: 14:56
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The corona, which has burst into our lives, worries experts because of the high density in cities.
On the other hand, access to health services in densely populated cities is better, and the proportion of doctors in relation to the population is also higher.
Israel is one of the most densely populated countries in the world.
About 90% of Israelis live in urban areas.
The corona plague, which broke out in our lives, worries experts because of the high density in cities.
On the other hand, access to health services in densely populated cities is better, and the proportion of doctors in relation to the population is also higher.
Therefore, the transfer of medical information regarding the epidemic is expected to be better, and the medical treatment is of better quality and faster.
Two new studies, one recently published in the journal Cities and another study published in the Annals of Regional Science, examine the question of whether overcrowded cities are increasing the spread of epidemics. The studies were conducted in collaboration with Dr. Yuval Arbel of the Western Galilee Academic College, Dr. Haim Fialkoff of the Hebrew University, Dr. Miriam Kerner of the Technion and Dr. Amichai Kerner of the Netanya Academic College. The results show that an increase in population density in January 2021 (on the eve of the start of the vaccination campaign) in the range of 4 to 20,000 people per square kilometer leads to a significant increase in the expected infection rates (the ratio between Corona and the urban population) from 6% to a maximum of 11%. The research team hypothesized that one of the reasons for this was related to the spread of the plague over time and the introduction of new variants.
The researchers examined the relationship between infection rates and two variable groups: population density and socioeconomic indicators.
The study was based on regional statistical analyzes of factors influencing the rate of infection in Corona, in order to examine how the morbidity rate was affected in the two selected time periods: at the beginning of the epidemic wave in Israel and towards the end of the third wave.
The initial assessment was that the more crowded the place, the higher the morbidity rate.
Density is only part of the picture.
Bnei Brak (Photo: Reuven Castro)
The higher the socio-economic index of the city, the lower the rate of infection
At levels of particularly high population density (between 20,000 and 26,500 people per square kilometer - the density in the city of Bnei Brak, which is considered one of the most densely populated cities in the world), there is a significant decrease in infection rates expected in January 2021 from 11% to 7%
This assessment led the state of California in the United States to change compact construction plans, emphasizing relatively dense construction, following the outbreak of the plague. That the morbidity rate in Corona is expected to decline as the population density increases. The explanation for this is that in densely populated cities, on the one hand, the residents are exposed to interactions with a greater number of people. But, on the other hand, in those places health services and infrastructure are more developed, and access to them is more convenient.
The researchers claim that the results of the studies have important implications for the field of urban planning in Israel. "Urban planning considerations should include a variety of aspects of accessibility, and as the justification for overcrowding increases, also from sustainability considerations, one needs to see how dealing with epidemics like Corona fits into the overall set of considerations," Dr. Pialkoff emphasizes.
However, the infection rate is not expected to increase in any area of population density. In other words, at levels of particularly high population density (between 20,000 and 26,500 people per square kilometer - the density in the city of Bnei Brak, which is considered one of the most densely populated cities in the world), there is a decrease in infection rates expected in January 2021 from 11% to 7%. Typical of cities with a population density of around 10,000 people per square kilometer). Also, the higher the socio-economic index of the city, the lower the expected infection rate.
This conclusion places the known data on the morbidity of ultra-Orthodox cities in a different light.
Dr. Arbel, the leader of the research, adds: "In the model we proposed, the socio-economic ranking of cities in Israel was also taken into account.
Jerusalem and Bnei Brak, for example, are at the bottom of the socio-economic ranking scale, and therefore infection rates are expected to be higher compared to cities with a more economically established population, while population density is maintained constant.
On the other hand, our model shows, as mentioned, an expected decline in infection rates in densely populated cities, while the socio-economic ranking is kept constant. "Dr. Pialkoff concludes: This, it makes sense to assume that the findings will add another layer to the set of considerations for planning Israeli cities. "
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