Irene Hartmann
09/07/2021 6:01 AM
Clarín.com
Society
Updated 09/07/2021 6:01 AM
On the street people talk about Delta in two ways: on the one hand, this variant of Covid flies over the fateful warnings of fever and snot that abound in the school chat on duty, which start with "
hello everyone, I wanted to warn you that
", or my son “
came in contact with
”.
On the opposite side, Delta is named for the negative: that it will not come, since 15 weeks ago the cases have dropped.
We are in a confused limbo, but
the picture clears up if one looks at the curves outside
.
The question is whether these days of great optimism due to the decline in cases, both in Argentina and in neighboring Chile, Uruguay and Brazil, f
They form part of a
logical parenthesis between waves
, or if remotely the - until now elusive - light of the end of the pandemic begins to shine.
The "logical parenthesis", that is, the "summer" that we go through with a sustained decrease in infections, alludes to what a group of Italian and French experts in a paper published by
Nature
last March ("
Multiwave pandemic dynamics explained: how to tame the next wave of infectious diseases
”) they called the“
strolling period
. ”Literally, the“ strolling period, ”that is, the
interlude
between waves of the pandemic.
Swabbed a baby for coronavirus detection.
/ Xinhua
Is it possible to estimate how long this time will last until infections rise again?
Could they not go higher?
All the questions are valid, beyond the justified hope that vaccination with two doses will avoid another accumulation of moderate and severe patients, with the known proportion of associated hospitalizations.
Whimsical calendar
Deduct
behavior patterns
of the Covid no wine being neither a simple task much less successful.
The experts of the aforementioned paper emphasize the weight that the reduction of infections has in that "intermediate time", when determining the "when" of the wave that follows.
One says it and it sounds obvious: the fewer cases there are today, the longer we will delay the third (strictly it will be the fourth) wave.
However, the epidemiological phenomenon is complex.
The virus moves through the population and imposes its times.
With our actions we put the epidemic on track;
we don't necessarily master it.
A clear example of the "viral will" was given by the Spanish
Enrique Bassat
, epidemiologist and researcher at the Institute of Global Health (IGLobal) in Barcelona: “In India, which is the country where Delta emerged, the first cases with this variant appeared in October.
However, it did not proliferate until at least four months later ”.
To be exact, the genomic surveillance data from the
CoVariants.org
site
reports that it was not until March of this year, that is,
five months after
it was identified, that Delta was seen "taking over" the spectrum of infections in India.
Also in Spain and the United Kingdom, five months passed between the high peak of January and the end of July, when Delta “put the tail in” and generated a new rise that at least England still suffers.
Germany, Italy and France can also attest that having a
"grace"
quarter or quarter
between the peak of a wave and the next ascent is within the
expected parameters
.
At least that is what they recently experienced with the Indian variant.
Argentinian spring
“I would be pessimistic and say that Delta is going to grow in Argentina.
I can't think of any compelling reason why it shouldn't be gaining prominence.
After what was seen in India, where it took a long time to generate a mega wave, perhaps it is possible to think that the time it takes for a new variant like this to enter and begin to predominate
is not less than four months
”, analyzed Bassat.
Vaccination against Covid in a center in Godoy Cruz, Mendoza.
Photo: Orlando Pelichotti
But nothing is sung in Latin America, said, from Concepción del Uruguay, Entre Ríos,
Soledad Retamar
, specialist in Computer Science, teacher and researcher at one of the regional headquarters of the National Technological University, who closely follows the rhythm of the pandemic.
"Indeed, it seems early to say that Delta is not going to generate another wave here, but for now, at the regional level, in South America
we do not have an impact as would have been expected,
" he evaluated.
In fact, the expert doubts about the “success” (seen from the eyes of Covid) that this variant may have in the region: “Variants like Alpha (
" former "United Kingdom
) did not have the same impact here as in Europe.
Here they hit the local variants, such as Gamma (
“ex Manaos”
) and Lambda (
Andean
) ".
"Could the
climate issue
have had an influence
? It is difficult to say. The truth is that Delta is going to find us with a high percentage of people vaccinated with one dose and with a complete advanced schedule in a segment of the population. I still do not see a very good projection. clear of what can happen, "he said.
Barriers
Who was optimistic was the biochemist
Belén Bouzas
, head of the Division of Clinical Analysis of the Hospital Muñiz.
The expert considered the strict controls on the arrival of foreign travelers to be successful, particularly since the mandatory isolation and completion of the swab on the seventh day is checked, "which in
37% of positive cases are of the Delta variant
."
"It is not that it has not entered the country: Delta, obviously, is being able to contain itself with the controls," he said.
A nurse prepares a dose of vaccine against the coronavirus.
/ EFE
Argentina experienced its maximum peak of Covid infections in the days of the Week of May.
If the pandemic were to follow the course of the aforementioned European countries (and we avoided the United States because of its high percentage of population reluctant to vaccination), Delta should start bypassing Gamma and Lambda (the dominant variants here) by the
end of September
.
For now, Bassat warned, you have to
continue taking care
of yourself as much as possible.
That is,
chinstrap, distancing and ventilation of environments
: “Being much more contagious, Delta could generate an increase in cases.
We have already seen that it has no problem infecting (not necessarily 'making') anyone.
Whether she is vaccinated or not.
Whether the infection has passed or not ”.
$
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