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Experts estimate that the impact of winter is going to be particularly severe
Influenza season is in full swing and it may be harder than ever, according to two recent studies.
How are the numbers prevented from rising and what can we expect in combination with the corona?
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the flu
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winter
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Thursday, 09 September 2021, 06:16 Updated: 06:24
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If you thought your summer was difficult, wait and see what the health holds for us this coming winter: The upcoming flu season 2021-2022 may be difficult, especially for children and young people, as a result of declining immunity levels due to the relatively weak flu season 2020-2021 that was during last winter. Of the corona.
Two new preliminary analyzes used a mathematical model to predict the 2021-22 flu season and found that the U.S. is expected to have about 20 percent more cases of flu than usual. In the worst case scenario, the number of flu cases may be double that in a typical year.
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Both reports, which have not yet been peer-reviewed and are on the medRxiv server, suggest that this winter is likely to bring about 600,000 flu-like hospitalizations in the U.S., more than 100,000 more than what happens in a typical season. Real and existential for health infrastructure.The
severity of the situation largely depends on how many people will get the flu.If the number of people vaccinated against the flu is particularly low, for example, experts predict that the US may experience an additional 400,000 hospitalizations.
To avoid burdening hospitals, the study suggests that up to 75 percent of U.S. residents should be vaccinated against the flu, rather than 50 percent as every year.
More people need to get vaccinated against the flu this year.
Influenza vaccines (Photo: Reuven Castro)
"The twindemic as it is called a combination of the flu equivalent to the corona plague did not overwhelm hospitals last year. But that does not mean it is not possible," said Prof. Mark Roberts, director of the Public Health Dynamics Laboratory at the University of Pittsburgh and a senior author in both studies. "Our models show that we need to be more concerned this year about the possibility of an increase in the COVID-19 virus in parallel with a massive outbreak of influenza in areas of the country with low vaccination rates against both diseases."
The 2020-2021 flu season was almost non-existent all over the world and also in Israel, because viral infections, such as influenza, almost completely disappeared with the help of social distance and other means of control of COVID-19. In fact, these measures have been so effective in preventing infectious infections that it is possible that some strains of influenza have become extinct in human populations.
John McCauley, director of the World Health Organization's Collaborative Research Center, and one of the world's leading influenza experts, said a year ago that "the last time we had evidence of such low rates of the disease was when we were just counting flu deaths, and that was in 1888. , Before the flu epidemic of 1889-90 ".
He explained that "fewer people have had the flu for the first time in 130 years."
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However, just as many scientists feared, the flu should return this year and in a big way.
Every year, flu vaccines are created based on the strongest strains, so it is worth getting a new vaccine every year - they are targeted at different strains.
Because very few people contracted the flu during the winter of 2020-2021, the immune system did not cope with the virus, and population-level immunity dropped significantly.
Researchers now believe that young children are at particular risk because the likelihood of being exposed to flu bacteria is not high.
It is difficult to predict which influenza strains will be dominant each year.
Influenza virus (Photo: ShutterStock)
Predicting the flu season is always a complicated process, even in the best of times, so these estimates should not be seen as finished facts.
However, all indications are that the 2021-2022 flu season is expected to be tough.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), "Reducing population immunity due to inactivity of the influenza virus since March 2020 could result in an early and possibly severe flu season."
To avoid hospital overload, health experts strongly recommend that as many people as possible get the flu vaccine (and of course the corona vaccine, if they have not already done so).
"This does not indicate that we need to stop efforts to reduce COVID-19 to prevent a severe flu season in the future," Professor Roberts added. ".
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