Up to 216 million people worldwide could migrate by 2050 to flee the adverse effects of climate change such as declining agricultural production, water scarcity and rising sea levels, warns the World Bank.
A phenomenon which is however not irreversible.
The Washington institution published a report on Monday completing the first of its kind unveiled in 2018 which focused on three regions of the world: sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America.
It then projected 143 million “climate migrants” by 2050 for these parts of the developing world.
This time, the World Bank added three other regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa as well as an area comprising Eastern Europe and Central Asia, in order to develop "an estimate. global, ”says Juergen Voegele, vice president of the World Bank responsible for sustainable development in the report.
"Climate migration could be reduced by around 80%"
"It is important to note that this projection is not written in stone," he commented. “If countries now start reducing greenhouse gases, reducing development gaps, restoring vital ecosystems and helping people adapt, climate migration could be reduced by around 80%, to 44%. million people by 2050, ”he explains.
Conversely, without decisive action, there will be “hot spots” of climate migration, he warns, with significant repercussions for host countries which are often ill-prepared to receive many additional migrants.
“The trajectory of climate migration over the next half century depends on our collective action on climate change and development over the next few years,” concludes Juergen Voegele, calling for action “now”.
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“Not all migrations can be avoided,” he also notes.
But "if managed well, changes in the distribution of the population can be part of an effective coping strategy, enabling people to lift themselves out of poverty and build resilient livelihoods," he says.
For now, the World Bank predicts that by 2050, sub-Saharan Africa could see up to 86 million climate migrants;
East Asia and the Pacific, 49 million;
South Asia, 40 million;
North Africa, 19 million;
Latin America, 17 million;
and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 5 million.