Covid will not lead to a 'tsunami' in the world of credit and banking portfolios.
There is a crisis among companies, it will emerge in the coming months but the new flows of impaired credit, equal to 41 billion in 2022 and 32 billion in 2023, will in any case be lower than the 71 billion recorded in 2013 alone both in absolute value and in terms percentages.
This is what emerges from the NPL Market watch report presented at the Npl Meeting in Cernobbio by Banca Ifis CEO Frederik Geertman.
"It's time to look ahead" unanimously say the 300 operators present at Villa Erba for the tenth edition of the meeting (and a thousand are connected in streaming) which, with the title "Recovery Builders", frames the air you breathe well. "We can make a contribution to the recovery" says the CEO of Banca Ifis Frederik Geertman and the other protagonists of the sector will repeat it, albeit with different words, in their interventions also the other protagonists of the sector from Marina Natale, to Amco to Bernardo Mattarella to to Mediocredito Centrale , from Stefano Martarelli, executive director credit governance group CLO of Intesa Sanpaolo to Aurelio Maccario Head of Group Credit Risk of Unicredit.
The forecasts are better than those of the beginning of the year. Total impaired exposures (NPLs and UtPs) at the end of 2021 should amount to 345 billion euros in Italy, of which 90 billion still on the bank books and the rest sold to sector operators who play an important role in the stability of the financial system. The stock in 2023 should reach 430 billion euros, of which only a quarter weighs on bank balance sheets. At the end of 2021, the stock of non-performing loans in bank balance sheets will stand at 90 billion euros with an NPE ratio of less than 5% and an increase to 113 billion euros at the end of 2023 (NPE ratio at 5.9%). This trend, explains Banca Ifis, is the consequence of the increase in the default rate in 2022 due to the end of the moratoriums, which is destined to decrease already in 2023.
The anti-crisis measures have limited the impact of non-performing loans on Italian bank balance sheets: an impact that will be manageable thanks to the greater efficiency of the Italian banking system and the development of the NPL market and the servicing industry. According to the report's estimates, Italy will reach in 2021 an NPE ratio (ratio between impaired loans and total loans) of just under 5% which will grow slightly to 5.9% in 2023. This "will allow banks to deal with financing and the real economy ". The vision is common and public, private and institutions create a system: "this is very encouraging - the CEO of Banca Ifis sums up - If things go even differently from what we have foreseen, there will still be a system that will be able to adapt,each operator in their role collaborating with each other ".
In collaboration with:
Banca Ifis