Social Security accounts are not going to recover for a while.
In a report published on Friday from
, the Social Security Accounts Commission indicates that the Social Security deficit will remain "
" in 2021, of the order of 34.8 billion euros taking into account the basic schemes and the Old Age Solidarity Fund (FSV).
The forecast deficit of the general scheme and the FSV alone would reach 34.5 billion euros.
A significant deterioration compared to the situation "
close to balance
" in 2019: the health crisis brought almost a decade of improvement in the accounts to an abrupt end, between 2010 and 2019.
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On the positive side, this year, the deficit of the general scheme and the FSV would be slightly less widened than the 38.7 billion euros of 2020, at the height of the health crisis. An improvement due to the good economic results, while activity remains dynamic and growth is expected above 6%. The latest projections of the social security deficit for 2021 are therefore revised slightly downwards, thanks to "
" higher than what had been forecast so far. The stronger-than-expected rebound in the French economy this summer and the "
sharper rebound in the wage bill
" are cited in particular by way of explanation.
Note, the lion's share of the deficit is carried by the general system. More precisely, the sickness branch "would
bear the greatest part of the forecast deficit in 2021
", its balance sheet being weighed down by the measures taken to deal with the epidemic. The work accident and family branches would find a surplus from this year.
In 2021, the revenues of the basic plans and the FSV should soar to 529.3 billion euros, up sharply compared to some 497.2 billion euros in 2020. A clarification due, again, to the dynamism of the economy, as well as other elements, including "
salary increases in private establishments within the framework of the Ségur de la santé
Opposite, spending will remain heavy, around 564 billion euros, against 536.9 billion last year.
However, they will grow less than revenues.
The deficit will therefore remain "
very high but improving by 5 billion euros thanks to the rebound in products, due to the economic recovery
A notable improvement expected in 2022
However, the result remains bright red: by way of comparison, the 2021 deficit is much larger than that of 2010 "
resulting from the financial crisis
", which was then the highest on record, of around 29, 6 billion euros. As a reminder, in 2020, the deficit had deteriorated "
by more than 40 billion euros from one year to the next
", notes the document, which underlines the exceptional weight of the health crisis and its economic consequences and social.
In 2021, according to the commission, the national health insurance expenditure target (Ondam) would reach a total of 237 billion euros, up 11.6 billion euros compared to the figure set in the social security budget. A significant jump compared to the last forecasts of June, caused by the epidemic resumptions - 1.6 billion euros of “
exceptional expenses, including 1.3 billion euros of additional
costs for screening expenses
and 100 million euros. euros for the continuation of the vaccination campaign
”, notes the report.
In the longer term, the situation should continue to improve in 2022, with the deficit of the general scheme and the FSV standing at "
" 21.4 billion euros.
clear reduction in the trend deficit of social security
", generated by "
the continued recovery of activity
" and the significant slowdown in spending.
Under the assumption, however, of a health improvement and a "
return to normal of the activity of the providers of care
", specifies the report.
The return to normal should not take place for several years, however.