“Do you know the figures for legal immigration?
», Asks Eric Zemmour.
He addressed this question to Jean-Luc Mélenchon, sitting opposite him, face closed.
This Thursday, BFMTV broadcasts a debate that pits the polemicist against the Insoumis, presidential candidate.
3.8 million viewers watch the scene, behind their screens.
And expect a response.
After a heating phase of about fifteen minutes, the debate becomes bogged down around the thorny question of immigration statistics.
Zemmour launches into a clever calculation, then brandishes: "At the end of the mandate of Emmanuel Macron, there will be two million legal immigrants".
Two million, really?
The Parisian checked.
What Eric Zemmour says
To arrive at this assessment, the former columnist of CNews, at the speaking time counted by the CSA in the event of a presidential candidacy, is based first on the legal entries of immigrants on the territory: he there were "275,000" in 2019, according to him.
INSEE actually reports 273,000 entries, in a study published in April 2021. On this point, Zemmour is not correct, but these declarations stick with public statistics.
On the set of BFMTV, Jean-Luc Mélenchon refutes.
“A very large part of those who come leave.
In particular a third of them, who are students, ”he adds, once Zemmour's tirade is over.
What is it really ?
Count outgoing
Jean-Luc Mélenchon is right.
During the same year, migrants also left the territory.
To know by how much the immigrant population has increased in France, we must subtract them.
This number is not yet available in 2019, as INSEE needs time to aggregate empirical data, which often arrives at a later stage.
Thus, the count of the institute is blocked in 2017. That year, if there are 261,000 incoming immigrants, 63,000 left France.
Result, "the migratory balance of immigrants" that year amounted to 198,000.
In five years, the balance sheet under the presidency of Emmanuel Macron would therefore be one million, if the trend remains stable.
It is two times less than what Zemmour announces.
It is however true that this balance increases year by year, + 21% since 2006, according to INSEE.
As it stands, this progression is not strong enough to prove the polemicist right.
"We are not making projections for 2022, but a priori the figure of 2 million additional immigrants does not seem credible," confirms Jérôme Lê, head of the studies and statistics unit on immigration at INSEE.
One figure that encompasses everything
In his list of statistics, Zemmour adds rejected asylum seekers who are not deported and unaccompanied minors.
According to him, in total, there will be 400,000 more immigrants in the country each year.
"I'm not even talking about the illegals," Zemmour insists.
This process is fallacious.
“The figure of 273,000 immigrants who entered France in 2019 corresponds to the last (final) figure published by INSEE.
It doesn't just cover legal entries.
INSEE lists all immigrants, regardless of their administrative situation, ”explains Jérôme Lê.
A jumble of data
Zemmour's comments are imprecise, but the chief analyst of INSEE does not spare Jean-Luc Mélenchon either: "It seems to me that everyone's comments mix up many concepts (stocks, flows, immigrants , non-immigrants) ”, squeaks Jérôme Lê.
In reality, France is stricter than its neighbors on the issue. For example, it refuses 75.3% of asylum requests, a rate 14 points higher than Europe as a whole, according to the Ministerial Statistical Service for Internal Security (SSMSI). In the UK, for example, the refusal rate is 47.3%. It is 33.8 for Spain, or 54.4. Only Italy is more severe.
With 12.7% of people born outside its borders in 2020, France is in the European average, which is 12.2%, according to INSEE.
And, still in 2020, the Hexagon counted among its own 7.6% of foreigners.
This is much less than Luxembourg, world champion in hospitality, with around 47.4%.
Most of our neighbors have much higher rates: Belgium is made up of 12.6% foreigners, Germany 12.5%, Spain 11% ...
Graduated immigrants, the most numerous
These figures are set up as proof of success by Gérald Darmanin, invited in a parallel debate against Valérie Pécresse, on France 2, still Thursday evening.
“On immigration, we are doing better than our neighbors.
Germany has twice as many foreigners as France, but also twice as many foreigners in an irregular situation, ”tweeted the Minister of the Interior, summing up his intervention on the subject.
In addition, immigration sometimes suffers from stereotypes.
Eric Zemmour regrets, for example, the time when immigrants were mainly Belgians, Spaniards, Italians.
"There was no cultural distance," he says.
If 40% of immigrants were born in Africa, 30% come from Europe, and 10% from America or Oceania.
People who arrive on French territory are also very educated.
In fact, qualified immigrants are the most numerous.
In 2019, 43% of those over 15 who entered the territory had a higher education diploma.
