Confindustria leader Carlo Bonomi calls for "a budget maneuver that, in compliance with the path of reducing public debt, will accompany the country towards the exit from the economic and social crisis linked to the pandemic, through a progressive exit from emergency measures", which provides for "resources to support the energy and environmental transition" and "to implement the structural reforms that represent the key to sustainably strengthen the country's growth potential" and that, "in the spirit of the message launched by Prime Minister Draghi" to the assembly of industrialists, does not foresee "new taxes".
For the economists of via dell'Astronomia "the rise in Italian GDP in 2021 is stronger than expected". The Confindustria Study Center "expects a + 6.1%, two points more than the April estimates, followed by a further + 4.1% in 2022"; And he explains: "This robust reboot of GDP, equal to over + 10% in the two-year period, after almost -9% in 2020, would bring our economy back to pre-crisis levels in the first half of 2022, ahead of initial expectations. ", which placed the goal in the last quarter of next year. "The upward revision is mainly explained by the more contained impact, compared to what was feared, of the Delta variant of Covid"
The Confindustria Study Center "estimates a strong rise in Italian GDP in 2021 (+ 6.1%), followed by a further significant increase in 2022". In the analysis of the leading economists of astronomy, "the dynamics expected for 2021 are significantly revised upwards compared to the latest forecasts, released in April, when a recovery of + 4.1% was estimated". Thus, "the recovery of the pre-crisis level of Italian GDP, therefore, would be brought forward between the first and second quarter of 2022, from the fourth estimated previously. The gap with respect to the pre-pandemic at the moment remains however wider than that of the other main European partners, because the fall of 2020 in Italy was greater than elsewhere: in the second quarter of 2021 it was -3.8% compared to the fourth of 2019; in Germany by -3.3%, in France by -3,2% while the United States has already reached the pre-crisis level in the second quarter of 2021 ".
Starting from the fourth quarter of 2021 "GDP expansion will settle on a more moderate profile. In fact, the thrust linked to the gap to be filled after the fall is running out". According to the CsC scenario "Italy would grow in 2022 at a rate of around + 0.7% on average per quarter, in any case much more than the + 0.3% per quarter recorded in the 2015-2018 period. The main reasons of the greater growth expected in 2022 compared to the pre-crisis past are: on the one hand, the still incomplete recovery of volumes of private consumption and foreign trade (services), which should therefore continue next year; other, the beneficial effects of the NRP and the expansive budget policy (which, however, is not taken into account in the forecast given that the Budget Bill has not yet been presented),which will further fuel investments ". In this phase of recovery after the Covid shock, economists on via dell'Astronomia still point out," consumption is gradually taking over from exports as a driving force for the recovery, placing itself alongside investments "and" services are becoming more dynamic than industry, which was already broken down between the second half of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 ";" In the second half of 2021 and then in 2022, as in the spring, a recovery in household spending is expected, especially in services. In particular for out-of-home expenses and travel, penalized until April by the limitations due to the pandemic ".the economists of via dell'Astronomia still point out, "consumption is gradually taking over from exports as a driving force for the rise, placing itself alongside investments" and "services are becoming more dynamic than industry, which was already divided between the second mid 2020 and early 2021 "; "In the second half of 2021 and then in 2022, as already in the spring, a recovery in household spending is expected, especially in services. In particular for spending outside the home and for travel, penalized until April by the limitations due to the pandemic" .the economists of via dell'Astronomia still point out, "consumption is gradually taking over from exports as a driving force for the rise, placing itself alongside investments" and "services are becoming more dynamic than industry, which was already divided between the second mid 2020 and early 2021 "; "In the second half of 2021 and then in 2022, as already in the spring, a recovery in household spending is expected, especially in services. In particular for spending outside the home and for travel, penalized until April by the limitations due to the pandemic" .industry, which had already restarted between the second half of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 ";" In the second half of 2021 and then in 2022, as already in the spring, a recovery in household spending is expected, especially in services. In particular for out-of-home expenses and travel, penalized until April by the limitations due to the pandemic ".industry, which had already restarted between the second half of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 ";" In the second half of 2021 and then in 2022, as already in the spring, a recovery in household spending is expected, especially in services. In particular for out-of-home expenses and travel, penalized until April by the limitations due to the pandemic ".