Winter will undoubtedly be better than last year, but contaminations will, despite everything, start to rise again.
These are, in essence, the conclusions of epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet, interviewed in the Journal du dimanche.
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Quite logically, the return of fresh air - which is accompanied by a much more indoor life, with the windows closed, than in summer - leads to an increase in contamination, notes the member of the scientific council.
France is currently experiencing "a moderate epidemic recovery", he believes in the weekly this Sunday, even if, due to the delisting of screening tests for people who are not vaccinated, it is necessary to wait "two or three weeks (…) to be able to identify a trend ”.
The role of the recall campaign
In addition to the arrival of cold and the change in habits, contaminations should continue to increase due to "the decline in the effectiveness of vaccines against infection". As the specialist reminds us, if protection against severe forms is maintained at a very high level, "protection against infection increases from 80% two months after the second dose to 50% after six months". For Professor Fontanet, the drop in efficiency should therefore be felt “from November” for people vaccinated at the very beginning of summer.
Despite this increase in contaminations to be expected, the epidemiologist assumes that French hospitals "should be able" to escape saturation this winter, but specifies that the recall campaign should be amplified for the oldest people and with co-morbidities.
The member of the scientific council also adds that if it is still too early to say, the third dose should become useful for all adults if the booster campaign struggles to take in the most vulnerable or if the effectiveness of the vaccine continues to decline. decrease over time.