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The Covid-19 has killed more than five million people worldwide

2021-11-01T10:08:52.266Z


Officially, the Covid-19 pandemic has already crossed this symbolic bar. The numbers could actually be much higher and turn


It is a sadly symbolic milestone.

The world has just passed the five million official death mark from Covid-19.

This figure is even very largely underestimated, since it is based on the daily official balance sheets of each country.

Taking into account the excess mortality linked to the disease, the toll could be two to three times higher, the WHO said.

According to an estimate by The Economist, Covid-19 even caused some 17 million deaths.

"This assessment seems more credible to me," Arnaud Fontanet, epidemiologist at the Institut Pasteur and member of the French scientific council, told AFP.

Whatever it is, it is lower than that of other pandemics: it is estimated that the so-called "Spanish" flu of 1918-1919 - also caused by a virus then unheard of - killed 50 to 100 million people, and in 40 years, AIDS has caused more than 36 million deaths.

However, the Covid-19 has caused "a lot of deaths in a very short time", notes Jean-Claude Manuguerra, virologist at the Institut Pasteur.

And "it could have been much more dramatic without the measures taken, first the restriction of the movement of people and then vaccination", according to Arnaud Fontanet.

Read also47,400 Covid-19 deaths averted?

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In general, the emergence of a new virus takes place in two phases, explains the professor.

First an "explosive epidemic phase": the virus penetrates with a crash into a population that had never been in contact with it.

Then, a phase where it "falls into line" because a population immunity has been built up: it is then said that it circulates in an endemic way.

With Covid-19, “this is the first time in the history of pandemics that such an effort is being made on a global scale to accelerate this transition” between the two phases, according to Arnaud Fontanet.

"The virus will continue to circulate"

An acceleration due to vaccination. "It has allowed the population to acquire artificial immunity against a virus that they did not know, and therefore to do in 18 months what we normally do in three to five years, with many more deaths", comments the professor. This is why the sequence of events will vary according to the level of vaccination of the countries and the effectiveness of the vaccines they use, predicts the epidemiologist. “We are probably a few months away from a time when there will be a mattress everywhere. What is difficult to say is if it will be thick enough ”.

“This virus will continue to circulate.

What we are aiming for today is no longer its elimination but protection against serious forms, ”continues Arnaud Fontanet.

"The idea is that the Covid does not lead to the hospital or the cemetery", for his part, sums up the virologist Jean-Claude Manuguerra.

Experts expect that the face of the pandemic will eventually change: schematically, the waves would settle in highly vaccinated industrialized countries and epidemic outbreaks would primarily affect the unvaccinated.

"For industrialized countries, I think that we are heading towards seasonal epidemics of Covid, which will perhaps be a little more severe than the epidemics of influenza in the first years before falling into line", judge Arnaud Fontanet, stressing that the overall immunity is built by layers, that brought by vaccination is added to that brought by natural infections.

Other countries such as China or India have strong vaccination capacities and could strive for the same future.

Another case in point: the countries which had chosen a virus eradication strategy (known as “zero Covid”), ultimately thwarted by the contagiousness of the Delta variant.

They are now leading a "vaccination race", notes Arnaud Fontanet.

Result: Australia and New Zealand are catching up with a forced march.

VIDEO.

Covid-19: WHO more pessimistic about the ability of vaccines to end the pandemic

Finally, the scenarios are more difficult to foresee for regions with uncertain vaccination capacities, such as tropical Africa.

The "very strong restart" in Eastern Europe confirms that insufficient vaccination exposes to "severe epidemics, with hospital repercussions", points out Arnaud Fontanet.

And the current rise in cases in Western Europe, despite high levels of vaccination, calls for caution.

“We must not have a European-centered perception: in a pandemic, the entire planet must be considered.

And for now, the pandemic has not stopped, ”warns Jean-Claude Manuguerra.

The fear of new variants

The main fear is the emergence of new variants resistant to vaccination.

Today hegemonic, Delta has swept away the previous variants, including Alpha, and has not allowed emerging ones like Mu or Lambda to settle.

Even more than the appearance of variants from distinct strains, specialists therefore anticipate an evolution of Delta itself, which could acquire mutations making it resistant to vaccines.

Read also "We will see other variants emerge": why the fight against Covid-19 is far from over

“Delta is the most common virus.

Statistically, it is therefore in this one that we risk having the appearance of a variant of a variant, ”explains Jean-Claude Manuguerra.

The British authorities are thus monitoring a sub-variant of Delta called AY4.2.

However, nothing says at this stage that it makes vaccines less effective.

"It is important to continue genomic surveillance" (the genetic identification of the different versions of the virus), argues Jean-Claude Manuguerra.

It makes it possible to "spot the emergence of variants early enough and to know if they are more dangerous, more transmissible and if the immunity still works".

Source: leparis

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