Covid-19: half a million more dead in Europe? Why the WHO is concerned

1.3 million deaths since the start of the pandemic in Europe… and an additional 500,000 by the end of February?

In any case, this is the fear of the World Health Organization (WHO).

“The current rate of transmission in the 53 countries of the European region is very worrying.

(…) If we stay on this trajectory, we could see another half a million deaths due to Covid-19 in the region by February ”, indicated this Thursday the director of WHO Europe, Hans Kluge, during an online press conference.

The rebound of the epidemic seems generalized in Europe, since the number of positive cases is increasing in almost all countries (the Europe branch of the WHO does not only include the European Union, but also the United Kingdom, Russia and many countries of Central Asia, already affected by a very strong epidemic resurgence).

So, what to think of this new alert from the WHO?

Everything is in the "if we stay trajectory" because most often, such projections have been denied by reality.

“This is not necessarily a good way to communicate alarmist projections, because we know that this is not what will happen.

At some point, governments take measures and the population changes its behavior, ”said epidemiologist Pascal Crepey.

"New wave of deaths"

Still, the total death toll in Europe will inevitably rise, even if it is difficult to anticipate in what proportion.

With more positive cases every day, there will also be more and more new deaths.

The mortality curve has already started to rise again in many countries, including Germany, which is worried about facing a "massive" wave of unvaccinated people.

The highest levels are achieved in Eastern European states, which have in common that they have a much less immune population than those in Western Europe.

For one million inhabitants, there are currently more than 20 deaths every day in Bulgaria and Romania, of which less than one in three is vaccinated, but less than 1 in France and Portugal.

Read alsoVaccines against Covid-19: does the effectiveness against severe forms decline (also) over time?

Vaccination greatly reduces the risk of severe form (up to about 90%), but without completely avoiding it.

And the effectiveness decreases over the months, at least against infection.

This is all the more worrying as the Delta variant, very contagious and overwhelming in Europe, manages to infect many people.

“As long as vaccines are not 100% effective against severe forms, it is quite possible to have a new wave of hospitalizations and deaths,” said Pascal Crepey.

Thanks to vaccines, the ratio of severe forms to positive cases should however remain much lower than in previous “waves”.

Other imperative measures?

In France and its main neighbors, where at least 80% of the adult population is vaccinated, the priority is now on booster doses in order to boost immunity.

But "there is unfortunately a great chance that we need to supplement the impact of vaccines by certain measures, because vaccination alone will not be enough to contain the epidemic," said Pascal Crepey.

In France, the government intends in particular to keep the possibility of imposing the health pass until July 31.

"The United Kingdom has relied too much on the vaccine alone, by relaxing all measures", adds epidemiologist Antoine Flahault.

Nearly 150 deaths are reported every day across the Channel, against a dozen before the summer.

But we are still very far from the record of 1,200 daily deaths, reached last January.