(ANSA) - ROME, NOV 07 - Robust recovery, GDP recovering by December the levels prior to the pandemic, and the tandem ECB-recovery fund that gives countries time for reforms, in order to relaunch economies beyond the mere goal of recovering pre-existing levels -Covid.
This is the scenario that Frankfurt, Brussels and the Eurozone capitals are trying to shore up. Why inflation back to gallop could upset the Frankfurt roadmap. And the risks of the 'fourth wave' put a mortgage on the new growth estimates that the European Commission will publish on Thursday 11 November.
Economic growth in the EU "continues to appear strong", but prospects are dominated by "high uncertainty", with "some significant risks of worsening", said EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni. Parescontata a better revision of the 4.8% and 4.5% growth for the Eurozone in 2021 and 2022, while for Italy the most recent figures of Brussels indicated a + 5% for 2021 which will be revised upwards. The government also speculates to exceed the 6% threshold. But Gentiloni's worry are the factors that have undermined the forecast scenario in the meantime.
That is: increase in infections, with vaccinations still too low in some countries.
If the field expands from the euro area to the European Union 27, especially the eastern bloc, there are risks of hard lockdowns, a new blow to growth that can also have repercussions in the central core of the euro.
Second, global trade bottlenecks, holding back the manufacturing sector.
Pushing up prices, together with energy increases, the third risk factor.
(HANDLE).