Any flare-up of inflation in the last months of this year would strongly reduce household consumption with the risk of negatively impacting even on Christmas purchases and slowing growth in 2022.
In fact, assuming an average price increase of 3% approximately 2.7 billion euros of consumption would be lost, which could reach 5.3 billion in the not-so-unrealistic hypothesis of 4% inflation.
This is what emerges from an estimate by the Confcommercio Research Office on the effects of a rise in inflation on household consumption in the fourth quarter of 2021.