"The fourth epidemic wave is already underway but we can reduce it. We can make it a wave. It is up to us to ensure that it does not become a rush like in other countries". Photographing the situation, on SkyTg24, is
Walter Ricciardi, full professor of Hygiene and preventive medicine, former president of the ISS and advisor to the Minister of Health for the coronavirus emergency
. "If we continue to use protections, do the third doses and manage the testing and tracking in schools properly, it will remain a small and not overwhelming wave as it happens in other countries," says Ricciardi.
"All over the world - explains Ricciardi - the circulation of the virus increases, for 3 reasons: the cold that leads to being in closed and more crowded places, the lack of vaccination coverage of important percentages of the population, this is not the case in Italy but for example, we see in countries where there is a massacre in progress, such as Bulgaria and Romania, where you can barely reach 30% coverage ". And then, he adds, "the last reason is the partial attenuation of vaccination protection for people vaccinated over 6 months ago and with this extremely contagious variant, they begin to get infected. If we add to this the fact that we move more, we use less. masks and we are less attentive to the safety distance because we are all tired, we understand how these elements together raise the epidemic wave ".
An Austrian model with lockdown for unvaccinated "now we do not need
, because the measures taken serve to keep the epidemic under control, as is happening. But over time we should think about correcting the Green pass", according to Ricciardi.
"Now the Green pass is also available with an antigenic swab but this has a 30% false negative and gives a false sense of security. Especially with the Delta variant, if you enter with a false negative test in a place where there are susceptible people, the infection occurs ".
The possible worsening of the situation is expected "between January and February because the Covid epidemic proved to be an epidemic with very predictable cycles".
While with respect to the risk of restrictions at Christmas, "if we continue like this, we can think of overcoming the winter adequately" but on condition that we proceed quickly with the third dose, which "must be done to prevent the circulation of the virus and to maintain protection. from severe forms of the infection ". Regarding the hypothesis of possible restrictive measures during the holidays, Ricciardi explained, "since last year there are clear scientific criteria and objectives to be used to make the necessary choices. But today we are among the best countries, because we have a high coverage. vaccination and an extensive green pass that allows you to attend indoor environments with a certain level of safety.If we continue like this, we can think of surviving the winter adequately.However, the recall of third doses is very important because between January and February the six months for millions of people expire and they must protect themselves. "At this moment, he concluded," the pandemic is essentially of the unvaccinated but also of those who are starting to lose vaccination protection ".
