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Global warming: by 2080, the French West Indies will experience marked droughts

2021-11-11T22:56:05.368Z


The report, released in mid-October, took as an analytical framework the hypothesis of a pessimistic greenhouse gas emissions scenario. The


We can expect more marked, longer and more intense droughts in the West Indies, including during the wet season.

With a decrease in precipitation of 10 to 15% on average "all year round" by 2080, a report predicts.

Read also Drought, heat waves ... you will have to get used to them

Agriculture is the first victim of water stress induced by the absence of rain, underlines this study entitled "Climate Change and Consequences on the French Antilles" (C3AF), while the COP26 in Glasgow is trying to find an agreement to reduce the global warming of 2.7% expected by 2100.

To read also COP26: "A gigantic machine of promises without tomorrow?"

The report, returned in mid-October, took as an analytical framework "the hypothesis of a pessimistic greenhouse gas emissions scenario", specifies Christophe Valère Montout, head of the climatology unit at Météo France. in Guadeloupe.

Modified cyclone trajectory

Its teams and partners modeled the local rainfall for this study. “The result is a drastic decrease in the amount of rain that falls annually,” he explains. Tropical waves bring rain to the West Indies. However, changes in the climate are modifying the paths of these waves, but also of cyclones ”towards the north of the Antilles. “And south of a cyclone, it's always hotter,” notes Christophe Valère Montout.

And then, in the dry period, the temperatures cool down: "less evaporation and faster trade winds" further slow down the rainfall.

The result is a drought which has consequences on the use of water, while the drinking water supply network in Guadeloupe is already suffering from multiple leaks.

To the point of having had to submit, in May and June 2021, the 52,000 ha of Guadeloupe's useful agricultural area to water towers, to supply users' taps.

For several years, droughts have been increasing: 2010, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2019 and 2020. In the event of a drought, the use of water would be severely restricted by prefectural decree.

Impossible, therefore, to clean his car, to empty the swimming pool or to water without worrying about the resource.

“Over the past 10 years, there have been two drought calamities (which meet very specific criteria), in 2015 and 2020”, according to the Food, Agriculture and Forestry Department.

Compensation paid in 2015 was nearly one million euros for 162 beneficiaries and around 1.1 million euros for 213 beneficiaries in 2020, according to this source.

Source: leparis

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