The forecasts on the demographic future in Italy return a "potential crisis scenario": the resident population is decreasing, from 59.6 million as of January 1, 2020 to 58 million in 2030, to 54.1 million in 2050 and 47.6 million in 2070.
The ratio between young and old will be 1 to 3 in 2050 while the population of working age will drop in 30 years from 63.8% to 53.3% of the total.
2048 could be the year in which deaths could double births, 784 thousand against 391 thousand.
Istat foresees it in a report.
By 2040, 10.3 million people will be destined to live alone, according to the forecasts of the resident population and families of Istat. "Among the many dynamics that lead to the transformation of family structures, there is the one that leads to the increase of lonely people," real micro-families ", explains the Institute of Statistics. In particular, men who live as alone will go from 3.6 million in 2020 to 4.3 million in 2040 (+ 17%). Single women, on the other hand, would be destined to increase from 5 to 6.1 million (+ 23%). Istat also highlights the " important social relapse "of this trend: it is mainly in old age that lonely people increase a lot.
Due to the fertility levels observed in recent years, and on the basis of the current scenario, Istat expects a substantial decrease in couples with children: between 2020 and 2040 their consistency would decrease by as much as 23%, i.e. from 8, 3 million up to 6.4 million. The forecasts of the resident population and families show this. At the same time, childless couples will increase from 5.1 million to 5.7 million, an increase of 13%. If this trend were to proceed with the same intensity expected until 2040, there could be overtaking already by 2045, explains Istat. Furthermore, marital instability, increasingly widespread in the country, will see an increase in single-parent families, male or female, with one or more children. In 2020 there were a total of 2.8 million single parents, mostly mothers (2,2 million) and fathers (less than 600 thousand) and respectively represent 8.6% and 2.3% of the total households. Lone fathers, while remaining a minority compared to single mothers, will be about 900 thousand by 2040 (3.4% of the total families), while single mothers are stable at 2.2 million (8.3% of the total), so that total of single parents would be 3.1 million.