According to the scenario presented to senior Israeli health officials on Thursday, if the Omicron variant spreads in Israel at the rate it is spreading in some countries of the world, such as Britain and Denmark, Israel could reach 90,000 new nationals a day and 4 million Israelis infected within a month. And a half in the omicron.
According to the scenario, there is indeed "research evidence for a certain decrease in the violence of the variant", but a slight decrease compared to the expected increase in infections, which is three to four times faster, and possibly even more than we knew - also due to "increased ability to infect an immunized population" .
The scenario, which is fully revealed here, suggests that if the accelerated spread of the omicron does occur, there may be a collapse of hospitalization services in hospitals in Israel due to morbidity and hospitalizations to an unprecedented rate in Israel, widespread morbidity in nursing homes and nursing homes. "In a way that has not yet been seen," and widespread adhesions and isolations in the defense establishment and in government and government institutions.
Senior health officials have been warned that a deployment that relies solely on the current index of difficult patient numbers in hospitals will not leave time for adequate deployment by the state and the healthcare system.
Corona test in Tel Hashomer, Photo: Gideon Markovich
According to the joint scenario for the Emergency Department of the Ministry of Health and the National Information Center for the Corona Campaign of the Intelligence Corps, Omicron "has taken over the disease picture in many countries, and within two to three weeks it is expected to become dominant in Israel." The former and much more rapidly, and the proliferation of morbidity will challenge many of the day-to-day functions, including education, leisure, workplaces and day-to-day services.
As shown, in England there had already been an increase within two weeks from 200 new cases per day to 50,000, and the incidence of omicrone had risen to more than 60 per cent of the new verified.
In London, it rose to more than 90 percent, along with a sharp rise in hospitalizations, along with the onset of mortality from the Omicron.
It is estimated that about one percent of the population in England is infected every day.
"Fear for the safety of patients"
Meanwhile, the impact of the spread of omicrons in England is already very serious and threatening to the health care system, and already about 100 ambulances in London are shut down (out of about 400) due to severe manpower shortages, due to hundreds of patients and isolates.
The mayor of London has warned of "serious consequences for the well-being of residents".
It also shows that in London about 10 per cent of medical staff are absent due to illness and isolation, and there is a "growing concern for the safety of patients".
Many schools have moved to distance learning, buses and trains are being canceled due to dozens of sick workers, and it is estimated that about 7.5 per cent of the UK workforce is disabled due to illness or isolation.
Caring for a patient in the Corona ward (archive), Photo: Oren Ben Hakon
It is further revealed that in South Africa the wave of morbidity in Omicron has spread throughout the country, after a slowdown began in Guateng Province where it was discovered.
Tests in the south found every third person verified to Corona and hospitalizations increased at the same time in fast multiples, 3-2.5 times a week, and most of the wave was concentrated for a few weeks.
It also shows that "the accumulation of hospitalizations in South Africa is 4-3 times faster than the delta wave."
Evacuation of Corona patient in South Africa, Photo: AFP
"It is still too early to say that the wave in South Africa was not fatal, because hundreds of deaths were officially reported in the Omicron wave, but an update of the excess mortality data shows a wider mortality of thousands that can be linked to the Omicron, similar to the reporting of previous waves," the health ministry said. .
Data accumulated over the past two weeks also show that there has been a sharp increase in the outbreak in the countries of Switzerland, Ireland, Norway, France, Cyprus, Portugal, Italy, Finland and Sweden.
MDA warning
Meanwhile, Israel Today learned that Magen David Adom, director general, Eli Bin, contacted the director general of the Ministry of Health, Prof. Nachman Ash, on Friday, and warned of the urgent need for emergency services in the country to respond to the omicron wave. The CEO warned that a sharp rise in morbidity could lead to "inability of hospital emergency rooms to receive verified corona frequently, which will lead to a significant lengthening of patient care times to the inability to absorb additional patients, in addition to increasing the burden on medical staff" In light of the isolation of patients' families. "
He further warned that "previous morbidity detectors indicate that emergency rooms in the country are unable to accommodate a number of patients and injured verified to Corona who have contacted MDA due to an emergency caused by a routine medical problem.
Non-admission of patients by the emergency room forced the ambulance staff to stay in the hospital for a long time until a patient evacuation destination was reached, to keep the patient in the ambulance at the entrance to the hospital for long hours until he was admitted - or to refer the patient to a remote hospital. A doctor to make a decision about the need for treatment and its urgency. "
Eli Bin, Photo: Oren Ben Hakon
The MDA director general also warned of a decline in blood collection capacity due to increasing morbidity, cancellation of blood donations due to exposure of donors to verified patients or a ban on accepting donations from people who have returned from countries where the epidemic has spread.
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