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Omicron variant: these French data reinforce the thesis of less virulence

2022-01-08T10:14:54.577Z


Public Health France analyzed a panel of 338 confirmed cases of the Omicron variant, with a "low" rate of hospitalization. Other data


The good news seems to be confirmed.

Real-life data in France "suggest a lower severity of the infection with the Omicron variant, which is consistent with the analyzes published by other countries", indicates Public Health France (SPF) in its weekly epidemiological update published on Thursday evening.

In detail, the health agency examined 338 confirmed cases of the Omicron variant, now the majority in France and in all regions of metropolitan France. Only 5 of those for whom the information was known, or 2%, were hospitalized. Three of them were not vaccinated, two of them with a risk factor. None went to intensive care.

This hospitalization rate is qualified as "low", but has two limitations.

First, there were few people at risk in the group, already reduced to the base.

In addition, "an underestimation is possible because the cases are investigated sometimes shortly after the onset of symptoms", cautiously indicates SPF.

Epidemiologist Mahmoud Zureik even says he is surprised that a rate of 2% is described as "low".

“It's obvious that Omicron is less serious than Delta, but that's not what would confirm it.

I hope that the percentage of severe forms on a larger sample will be less than 2%, ”he explains.

50 to 70% lower risk of being hospitalized

By our calculations, the share of positive cases that end up in hospital has steadily fallen for over a year, from 12% to just under 2%. Much of this decrease is due to vaccination, which protects much more against the risk of hospitalization than against the risk of becoming infected. The intrinsic nature of Omicron could also explain it, since it would attack the lungs less than the previous variants. In addition, the profile of the contaminated has generally improved over the months. Among those over 60 years old, we have gone from around 30% to 12% of positive cases that end up in hospital.

The “field” data, which is updated daily, brings other interesting elements to Omicron. The number of Covid patients hospitalized each day is increasing by around 30% per week, compared to 10 to 15% for the number of patients admitted to critical care. "Delta saturates resuscitations

(one of the components of critical care)

, Omicron conventional hospitalizations", summed up the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, on France Inter at the start of the week.

Professor Bruno Mégarbane, head of the intensive care unit at Lariboisière hospital, tells the Parisian that at the Public Assistance - Paris Hospitals, "75% of Covid patients in conventional hospitalization and nearly 20% of those in intensive care, and whose variant is known, are from Omicron ”.

Not all are necessarily taken care of for the Covid, but sometimes for something else while having been infected.

"In the medical department, the cases of Omicron are younger, more vaccinated, and they stay shorter than those of Delta (4 days versus 6 days)", he adds.

"We are far from a disaster scenario"

Justine Schaeffer, expert at Public Health France, also reports “more benign clinical presentations” in patients contaminated by Omicron.

The most commonly reported symptoms are fatigue, cough, and fever.

The rate of hospitalization after going to the emergency room for suspicion of Covid-19 increased from 50% to 36% in two weeks, while it remained stable for all causes combined.

This suggests, again, "a lesser severity of cases having resorted to the emergency room for suspicion of Covid-19" over the last two weeks, during which Omicron has become the majority among the daily cases, indicates Public Health France.

All these data confirm others, abroad.

Several studies, including England, Scotland and South Africa, have found a 50 to 70% lower risk of being hospitalized for infection with Omicron compared to Delta.

And if a person is taken care of in the hospital, the risk of developing a severe form also seems to be reduced.

In London, only one in 15 hospitalized Covid patients is on artificial ventilation, compared to one in five in previous waves.

VIDEO.

Why does the Omicron variant reduce the effectiveness of vaccines?

Despite everything, with 220,000 positive cases recorded every day on average in France, the hospital could find itself saturated even with less virulence of Omicron.

A smaller percentage of a very large number can lead to… the same result as a greater risk in fewer positive cases.

“We are far from a catastrophic scenario.

But will the hospital support between 2000 and 4000 conventional hospitalizations per day for a month?

», Asks Mahmoud Zureik.

Source: leparis

All life articles on 2022-01-08

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