Prof. Ran Blitzer, head of the Innovation Institute at Clalit, head of the government's expert cabinet, was interviewed by Israel Today this evening (Saturday) against the background of the spread of the Omicron strain and the recent breaking of morbidity records.
What is your assessment of the omicron wave? How many verified will we reach the peak and how long will it last?
"There are no predictive models for what it will be like at the peak. There are too many missing to predict at the moment the number of infected at the peak, and the estimated date we will reach it. There will be millions of infected, so there will also be many severely hospitalized."
What is known so far about the omicron and the morbidity from it and are the question marks starting to fade?
"In recent weeks we have learned that Omicron behaves fundamentally differently from previous strains we have known. The differences between it and Delta are greater than Delta alpha and other strains. It has different mechanisms of cell entry and is conducted differently at the cellular level. Omicron infects more upper respiratory cells and less lung All of these differences at the cellular level probably help explain why its violence is less than Delta's. At this point it is clear to us from the British data that the risk of severe hospitalization is at least 3 times lower than Delta. And that is good news. "In the past and also people who were vaccinated, then the number of infections will be greater and the number of hospitalizations accumulated may also be higher. Therefore, the health system is preparing for stricter scenarios."
Minister Horowitz presents the new test outline: "The omicron wave requires a change in perception and adjustments, saving waiting times" // Photo: Shmuel Buharis
In the Delta, there is talk that a percentage of those infected will be hospitalized. How many will be in Omicron?
"It varies from country to country and is difficult to compare, but in the standardized conversion ratio for age and immune status the chance of hospitalization is 3 times less than in the Delta."
Is the omicron more dangerous for children?
"We do not regard the fact that the omicron is more dangerous for children, but it is important to clarify that we are still collecting information from around the world and there is still uncertainty about this issue. I think it is right to exercise caution "The children - do it now. It is important to protect the children to prevent PIMS (Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome and Long Cubid Symptoms), the rate of which is still unknown."
"It's important to protect the children."
Prof. Ran Blitzer, Photo: Yuval Chen
Is it possible for herd immunity in the omicron because of the large volumes of infection?
"We still do not know what the rate of infection will be but we have heard in the past the aspiration for herd immunity. We now see that what happens to people infected in previous rounds is that they are currently vulnerable to re-infection. The aspiration at any stage should be non-infection "A vaccine gives the protection without absorbing risks. It is not certain that those who are infected with Omicron will be protected from other strains and later infection."
The government made a decision this week - to prioritize PCR tests and instruct people to be tested at home or in rapid tests. Will this not lead to chaos? Is this a "show of hands" on the subject of the struggle in Corona?
"If we could keep the previous testing policy in the reality of tens of thousands of infected people a day we would do it. But since that is not possible, certainly not when the numbers continue to double, changing the guidelines would be a necessity of reality. With each further doubling of the daily number of infections, it was appropriate, as it did, to prioritize testing for the population most in need - the elderly and vulnerable who need early treatment after infection. The situation is based on infections in people aged 60 and over, with the fourth-degree flu and vaccine limit, as well as in hospitals - where there have been no changes in the guidelines. "
The new test layout,
Is there a way at this point to stop the infection by restrictions like a green mark or a crowd limit (purple mark)?
"The vaccine and in particular the booster produce good protection against Delta infection, and excellent protection against severe disease due to Delta and Omicron. From non-essential gatherings that take place under a green label. "
You said last week that the green mark also lost some of its defense. What is the current recommendation for vulnerable populations? How would you recommend driving?
Despite the high contagion of Omicron, at-risk populations can avoid and become infected with the virus in the current wave. Those who did not receive the third dose must be vaccinated (there are 400,000 people over the age of 40 who have not yet received a third vaccine). A person entitled to a fourth dose can receive a fourth dose and re-raise his antibodies to the state he was in after the third dose. Evidence from the UK that these people, ‘fresh’ booster vaccines have almost 90% protection against a serious illness.
"The second thing is to keep a mask in any enclosed space and gathering. In addition, events that take place indoors should be avoided except for essential daily activities. "One should avoid multi-participant activities in closed spaces, but on the other hand not to reach a state of social isolation to continue the activities and meet friends."
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