The horror scenario that experts fear:
An updated forecast by researchers advising the Corona Cabinet was presented last night (Tuesday), according to which if the current morbidity trend continues as it is, Israel is expected to reach a peak of 800,000 to 2 million active patients in two weeks and hospitalization records of 1,000 to 2,000 patients. In difficult condition.
If this scenario materializes, between 5% and 2% of these patients are expected to be children up to the age of 11.
The researchers also claimed that the high morbidity loads are expected to create a high burden on the economy and the health system and they recommended limiting gatherings, improving guidelines on antigen testing and initiating survey operations that will help reduce the rate of infection and reduce the point load.
In addition, the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing infection is low (20-12%), but it is higher than 90% in preventing serious illness.
In the plausible scenario, between 4-2 million citizens will be infected in the coming month, with tens of percent of them being symptomatic.
This means hundreds of thousands of patients simultaneously that will lead to the loss of millions of working days to the economy.
PM Bennett: "Closure does not help, I am not going in that direction" // Photo: GPO
Meanwhile, from the data presented, it also emerged that the chance of hospitalization in the case of infection with Omicron is about 40% of the chance of hospitalization compared to a case of infection in the Delta.
Despite the relatively low percentage, due to the high infection rates - this is expected to create a very heavy load in hospitals.
At the same time and despite the expected morbidity levels, data analysis from London indicates a reduced chance of hospitalization as well as a deterioration from a critical to critical condition relative to the Delta strain morbidity.
Therefore, despite the severe morbidity, no critical load is expected in the number of respirators.
A significant test point on this issue will be next week, so it will become clear whether in Israel the chance is similarly reduced.
Under the current model, morbidity is expected to begin to decline between January 25 and 30.
In addition, the experts' data showed that for the first time, an improvement in the protection of the vaccine against the omicron variant was observed, and this improvement may be related to the granting of an additional booster dose.
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