Covid-19: "the worst-case scenario is moving away", says Arnaud Fontanet

A slight wind of optimism in terms of the health crisis.

Invited this Monday at the microphone of France inter, the epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet estimated that “the worst-case scenario is moving away”.

“The decline has begun, the peak of infections has passed these days at least in Île-de-France.

Hospital admissions are expected to peak in the coming week,” he said, noting however that hospitals will “still be very busy during the month of February.”

.@ArnaudFontanet: "Yes, the worst-case scenario is moving away, the decline has begun, the peak of infections has passed these days at least in Île-de-France. Hospital admissions are expected to peak in the coming week."

#le79Inter pic.twitter.com/bWovl62PGV

– France Inter (@franceinter) January 17, 2022

Thus, despite hospital tension which is likely to continue for a few more weeks, "the peak is passing before our eyes", he insisted.

Even if the number of contaminations recorded daily remains high - another 278,129 positive cases on Sunday - this figure "will decrease considerably in February to reach a very low level in March", according to the researcher's projections.

Read alsoCovid-19: “For the moment, our enemy is the Delta variant”, recalls Professor Arnaud Fontanet

In passing, the professor praised the collective effort of the French who, since the beginning of January, have reduced their number of contacts, making it possible to avoid a health “catastrophe” at the hospital.

"We had projections that said that if contacts were reduced by 20%, that would halve hospitalizations, that's very likely what happened," he announced.

And to add: "let's continue the effort, it has already really paid off".

“We have strengthened our immunity”

However, the Covid will not disappear, insists the specialist.

On the contrary, “this virus will settle and circulate”, he maintains.

“But with each wave with different variants, we boosted our immunity.

Thus, we protect ourselves better and better against serious forms, ”he recalls.

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Finally, if it remains present in France, the Delta variant, eclipsed by Omicron, is now circulating at a very low level.

"We have reason to think that Delta will not come back with the vigor it had during the fall," warned Arnaud Fontanet.

Should we fear the arrival of new variants?

"This process of emergence will continue to exist," said the doctor.

“If you have a variant that emerges that is capable of immune escape and extreme contagiousness, you can end up with a new wave,” he nuanced.