Bank of Italy: lima lowers GDP estimate, in 2022 + 3.8%

The Bank of Italy revises down the GDP estimates for 2022 released last December also following the surge in infections and the deceleration of the economy, especially consumption, in the fourth quarter of 2021

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According to what we read in the Economic Bulletin, our country will grow by 3.8% this year (against + 4% of the previous estimate) by 2.5 in 2023 and by 1.7 in 2024. The forecasts are based on one scenario with "short-term negative repercussions on mobility and consumer behavior" but without a severe tightening of restrictive measures "and with an attenuation of the epidemic in spring.

The central institute recalls how the growth projections for 2022 are more contained than those recently disclosed by the other main forecasters, formulated before the new worsening of the pandemic situation took place. "For 2023 they are higher than those widespread in October by the International Monetary Fund and substantially in line with those of other private and institutional forecasters. In any case, this is the caveat of the Via Nazionale experts, "the growth prospects are subject to multiple elements of risk, mainly oriented to the downside. In the short term, uncertainty is connected with the health picture,the deterioration of which could lead to restrictions on mobility and affect consumer and business confidence to a greater extent than is currently incorporated in the estimates, further hindering the recovery of economic activity. "Risk factors are also linked to the possibility that supply-side tensions are more persistent and are transmitted to the real economy to a greater extent, as well as to the possibility of a more prolonged weakening of world trade. In the medium term, the projections remain conditional on the full implementation of the spending programs included in the budget maneuver and on the complete and timely implementation of the interventions envisaged by the NRP ".Risk factors are also linked to the possibility that supply-side tensions are more persistent and are transmitted to the real economy to a greater extent, as well as to the possibility of a more prolonged weakening of world trade. In the medium term, the projections remain conditional on the full implementation of the spending programs included in the budget maneuver and on the complete and timely implementation of the interventions envisaged by the NRP ".Risk factors are also linked to the possibility that supply-side tensions are more persistent and are transmitted to the real economy to a greater extent, as well as to the possibility of a more prolonged weakening of world trade. In the medium term, the projections remain conditional on the full implementation of the spending programs included in the budget maneuver and on the complete and timely implementation of the interventions envisaged by the NRP ".the projections remain conditional on the full implementation of the spending programs included in the budget maneuver and on the complete and timely implementation of the interventions envisaged by the NRP ".the projections remain conditional on the full implementation of the spending programs included in the budget maneuver and on the complete and timely implementation of the interventions envisaged by the NRP ".

The recovery in household consumption continues and will rise by 4.4% this year but in the first part of 2022 it will be held back by the increase in energy prices and the evolution of the pandemic which has already led to greater caution in the fourth quarter and in the last weeks.

according to which "the recovery of consumption at pre-pandemic levels would be completed with a delay of about a year compared to that of the product".

Growth "will return in a sustained manner from next spring, thanks to the improvement of the health framework" and the cooling of energy prices.