The economy is also slowing down due to the increase in infections while inflation is running with an estimate for January of a 1.5% increase in prices over December and 4.7% over the year. It can be read in
the Confcommercio economic report
according to which
in January the GDP will decrease by 2% on December while it should be fixed at + 4.4% for the year.
In December 2021, the Confcommercio (ICC) consumption indicator slowed to + 9.1%
on a trend basis compared to + 16.4% in November but compared to a December 2020 in which many businesses were closed due to the second wave of the pandemic from Covid. According to the Report, demand for services recorded an increase of 47.6% with + 106.5% for hotels and meals consumed away from home.
The increase in demand for goods as a whole is decidedly more contained (+ 1.3%).
On average in 2021, despite the sharp recovery in demand implemented by households starting from the spring, consumption, in the CCI metric, is still 7.7% below 2019, a synthesis of a gap of 1, 3% for goods and 22.4% for services.
"Although less stringent than in the previous phases of the pandemic - reads the Report -
the most recent constraints on mobility and sociality are destined, however, to produce a downsizing of growth prospects
, also due to the negative impact in terms of operators' expectations. On the other hand, with the theorem of the transience of the new inflation now wavering, the economic prospects would find a strong limitation also due to the reduction in the purchasing power of incomes and wealth held in liquid form ". The deterioration of conditions - reads "amplifies the concerns about the prospects for 2022". The estimate of inflation which in its monthly dimension (+ 1.5% prices in January according to the Confcommercio estimate) "brings back the calendar by almost forty years, while reflecting largely the exceptional increases authorized for the regulated energy component,it is also affected by the price increases of some consumer goods and services that have been subject to pressure for some time. "In November 2021 - according to the association's estimates - industrial production showed, after a quarter of substantial stagnation, a decisive recovery (+ 1.9% cyclical). The comparison on an annual basis shows a variation of 6.2%. In the same month, employment consolidated the trend of recovery (0.3% on October), a dynamic that allowed a return to at a level exceeding 23 million workers.employment has consolidated the recovery trend (0.3% on October), a dynamic which has made it possible to return to a level of over 23 million workers.employment has consolidated the recovery trend (0.3% on October), a dynamic which has made it possible to return to a level of over 23 million workers.
