(ANSA) - ROME, MARCH 05 - The economic effects of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict "are not yet fully reflected" in the dynamics of industrial production on March 1 ", however, they will contribute to generating further imbalances in industrial activity in the coming months, worsening the scarcity of some commodities, making the increases in their prices more lasting, as well as increasing uncertainty, thus risking compromising the evolution of GDP in 2022 ".
This is highlighted by the rapid analysis on industrial production by the Confindustria Study Center, which records: "The contraction of industrial activity continues in February, -0.3%, after the fall in January, -0.8%".
For the economists of via dell'Astronomia, after "the impact of expensive energy on Italian economic activity had already caused a sharp slowdown in the production of industry", Italian industrial production "is expected to decrease in February (-0.3%) , after the most marked decline in January (-0.8%), while only minimally incorporating the effects of the clash between Russia and Ukraine which is increasing the supply difficulties of companies and pushing the prices of raw materials and energy even higher " .
"The surveys on the confidence of manufacturing companies - continues the analysis of the CsC - reveal a slowdown in the first two months of the year, mainly driven by pessimistic expectations on the economic prospects, even before the outbreak of the war".
In Q1 2022 "the change acquired would be -1.0% (from + 0.5% in Q4 2021 and + 1.0% in Q3). Orders in volume are expected to increase monthly by 0.3% in January and 0.1% in February ".
(HANDLE).