The threat of new sanctions on Russia, this time extended to oil, unleashes yet another wave of panic on the markets, with the European stock exchanges sinking in the morning and the prices of all raw materials, including food, lengthening a sprint. whose end is not seen.
The spiral generated by the war in Ukraine feeds the nightmare of stagflation, a deadly mix of high inflation and low growth, with Barclays and JP Morgan raising their estimates for the former and lowering those for the latter.
"The shortage of available raw materials could cause severe imbalances in the supply chain, with serious repercussions on growth and a concomitant effect of price increases", warns asset manager Carmignac.
Piazza Affari lost 1,
4% at the end of a very nervous session that saw the Milanese market drop by up to 6% while Frankfurt and Paris closed down by 2% and 1.4% respectively.
Worse did the Asian stock exchanges (-3% Tokyo and -3.9% Hong Kong) while on Wall Street S & Pe Dow Jones fell by 2%.
UBS analysts, in light of the macro and geopolitical framework, have cut their judgment on global and European shareholding.
Frankfurt and the pan-European Stoxx 50 index entered a 'bear market', having fallen back more than 20% from their January highs.
For Dow Jones, they are back by 2%.
UBS analysts, in light of the macro and geopolitical framework, have cut their judgment on global and European shareholding.
Frankfurt and the pan-European Stoxx 50 index entered a 'bear market', having fallen back more than 20% from their January highs.
For Dow Jones, they are back by 2%.
UBS analysts, in light of the macro and geopolitical framework, have cut their judgment on global and European shareholding.
Frankfurt and the pan-European Stoxx 50 index entered a 'bear market', having fallen back more than 20% from their January highs.
Investors have been frightened by the jump in oil, with Brent brent reaching $ 140 a barrel, its highest since 2008, in the wake of the US threat to block imports of Russian crude.
The slowdown in Germany, which defined Russian supplies as "essential" for Europe, caused Brent to fall back, which in any case remained above 120 dollars, closely followed by the WTI.
In Amsterdam, gas surged to € 345 (+ 79%) and closed at a new high of € 227 (+ 18%).
But there are many records marked by commodities, from palladium, to copper to nickel.
Whilst wheat, of which Ukraine and Russia are major producers, broke through its all-time high in Paris after Hungary introduced grain export controls.
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For Goldman Sacs, the energy rush will eat up 1.2% of the European GDP but in the event of a reduction in Russian supplies, the impact, referable only to gas, will rise from 0.6% to 1%, to touch the 2.2% in the "most adverse" scenario of a complete shutdown of the taps.
The greater exposure of the European economy to that of Russia was manifested in the weakness of the euro, which fell to 1.087 against the dollar, and in the dip of the single currency below par with the Swiss franc.
Nothing compared to the rout of the ruble, which sanctions are annihilating (today it touched a low of 162 on the dollar when at the beginning of 2022 it was quoted at 75) while a Russian debt default is increasingly considered likely on the market.