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Ukrainian band Kalush Orchestra: Does »Stefania« have a chance of winning?
Photo: Maxim Fesenko / UAPBC / ESC / dpa
According to bookmakers, Ukraine is the favorite to win this year's Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) in Turin.
International betting providers see the Ukrainian band Kalush Orchestra, who will perform the song "Stefania", in the lead - and thus also predict a declaration of solidarity from Europe in the Ukraine war.
The provider Unibet, for example, offered a win rate of 2 on Monday, so it pays out 20 euros for a ten-euro bet if Ukraine wins.
In mid-February, Ukraine, which still has to qualify for the final on May 14 in one of the semi-finals (May 10 and 12), was still positioned in the middle in an overall ranking by some bookmakers.
In the Ukrainian preliminary round on February 12, the singer Alina Pash was initially chosen as a candidate.
After the show, the betting shops, whose odds are archived on the Oddschecker overview portal, offered odds of 4/1 for the singer to win.
But because of open questions about a trip by the singer to the Crimean peninsula annexed by Russia in 2015, Pash withdrew her participation on February 16 - Ukraine's ratings slipped sharply.
After the Kalush Orchestra was announced as the successor on February 22, the bookmakers offered odds of around 10/1 for bets on an ESC victory for »Stefania«.
But when the war began, the betting odds changed abruptly: as early as February 25, some bookmakers were only offering odds of 2/1 for a Ukrainian win.
There are now well-known offices such as Coral or Ladbrokes, which would only pay out a little more than the stake in a Ukrainian ESC victory at a rate of 6/5.
Kalush Orchestra: Use at the Ukraine ESC
For the top favorites of the betting shops, however, the song contest is still a long way off.
Kalush Orchestra frontman Oleh Psiuk and a group of 20 distribute medicines and help people fleeing the war in western Ukraine.
One of his bandmates serves in Territorial Defense, he tells Reuters.
The strong betting odds leave Psiuk cold at the moment: "I can't be happy about it while I'm worried about my loved ones.
The war separated me from my girlfriend,” he says.
She is 300 kilometers away, sitting in a bunker and air sirens can be heard all the time.
The rap song »Stefania«, which the Kalush Orchestra puts into the running, is addressed to a mother.
It contains the line: "I will always find my way home, even if all roads are destroyed."
At the moment the band members practice separately from each other
The Ukrainian delegation has confirmed its participation and submitted all the necessary documents on time, said the producer of the international music competition held in Italy in May, Simona Martorelli.
"That's absolutely admirable given the situation," she added.
At the moment the band members are practicing separately, but plan to meet in Lviv soon to rehearse their song »Stefania« together.
The artists wanted to try to record a "backup video," which is required of all invitees to the competition in case they can't attend live, Martorelli said.
"I hope they make it."
"Under what circumstances we will travel to the ESC: I will try to be of use to Ukraine," says Oleh Psiuk.
"Even if the war were to end in the near future, it will not be easy because we will need a lot of time to rebuild."
If the Kalush Orchestra wins, Ukraine is likely to host the Eurovision Song Contest 2023 - as it did in 2017 after the triumph of singer Jamala, whose song "1944" was about the deportation of Crimean Tatars during Soviet times.
However, if Ukraine is not in a position to host the ESC financially or organizationally, another country could step in as the organizer.
This has happened on several occasions, most recently in 1980 when Israel refused to play the costly role as hosts again after winning for the second time in a row.
At that time, Dutch television stepped in and hosted the competition in The Hague.
With their performance at the Song Contest in Turin, Kalush Orchestra want to spread the message that there are no guarantees: "We didn't think something like that could happen to us either," says Psuk.
“We must end it as soon as possible.
We want peace to finally come to Ukraine.«
Italy and Sweden also favoured
The ESC is already heavily influenced by the Ukraine war.
After the invasion of Ukraine, Russia was excluded from this year's song contest by the organizers of the ESC, which is the broadcasting association EBU (European Broadcasting Union).
Mahmood & Blanco, who represent the host country Italy in Turin with their song »Brividi«, are currently in second place in terms of betting odds.
The singers won Sanremo's traditional music festival in February - and according to bookmakers, they have a good chance of repeating Måneskin's success.
The band first won the festival in Sanremo in 2021 and then the Eurovision Song Contest.
Sweden's starter Cornelia Jakobs, who starts the race with the song "Hold Me Closer", was third.
Germany's participant Malik Harris ("Rockstars") was among the 40 nations that have now all reported their ESC contribution in the ranking on Monday in 24th place (Unibet win rate 151) out of 40 places.
The bookmakers were often right with the ESC top spots.
feb/dpa/AFP/Reuters