It is difficult to quantify the impact of the war on European economies.
In
Italy
, industrial production started to grow again, while the
United Kingdom
recorded the highest inflation increase
in the last 30 years.
I
n
Germany
there is the risk of "an
acute recession
" in 2023 in the event of a
stop to Russian gas
and the growth estimates for 2022 are revised.
According to Istat, "the
impact of the war
on the Italian economy remains
difficult to measure
" and takes place in a phase of the cycle characterized by the growth of some economic sectors, investments and the labor market.
In
February
, industrial
production started to grow again
, making up for a large part of the decline recorded in the previous two months: for the seasonally adjusted index, Istat estimates a
rise of 4%
over January.
Adjusted for calendar effects, in February 2022 the overall index then increased in trend terms by 3.3% and the comparison with the value of February 2020, the month before the start of the health emergency, is also positive: the level seasonally adjusted index of February 2022 is greater than 2.5%.
On the average of the last three months, on the other hand, the
economic trend remained negative (-0.9%).
"Despite
the acceleration of inflation
, the current
investment rate
, which has returned to 2008 levels, and the still high propensity to save could represent strengths for the development of the economy in the coming months".
Istat also specifies that the
sharp rise in the cost of living
"is still the main downside risk".
GREAT BRITAIN
- The summary data on inflation in the United Kingdom instead indicates a rise of
7% in March
: it is the highest in the last 30 years.
The estimates of 6.7%
and the jump of 6.2% recorded in the previous month
were exceeded.
Estimates also exceeded on a monthly basis, with an increase of 1.1% compared to the + 0.7% forecast and the previous progress of 0.8%.
The consumer
price
index recorded an increase of 5.7%, compared with an expected + 5.4% and a previous rise of 5.2%.
On an annual basis, the figure shows an
increase of 9.1%
against the 8.3% rise recorded in February.
The monthly retail price index, on the other hand, rose by 1% compared to the previous 0.8%, while producer prices rose by 12% on an annual basis, against the rise of 9.9% in February, and 2% on a monthly basis, against the + 0.7% recorded in February.
GERMANY
- In their spring estimates,
German economic institutes
have indicated that Germany will slide into an "acute recession" in 2023, in the event of an interruption in Russian gas deliveries.
The main German institutions have
revised their growth estimates
for Germany: in 2022 it will be
2.7%
.
In the autumn, expectations were
4.8%
.
In the event of a stop in Russian gas, GDP could still grow by only 1.9%.
For 2023, the estimate is 3.1%, but with the risk of recession if it comes to the end of gas deliveries from Russia.
The data is contained in a joint report by the Diw, Ifo, Ifw, Iwh, Rwi institutes.