(ANSA) - ROME, MAY 12 - The Russian Central Bank has returned to examine the national economic scenario, which appears increasingly uncertain in relation to "geopolitical factors", that is, the war in Ukraine and its global consequences.
"In the medium term, inflationary risks prevail - said the regulator according to the TASS -" although their influence has decreased compared to the end of February. "Among the main risks, the regulator also indicated the further strengthening of foreign trade and financial restrictions, which predict a more significant decline in the potential of the Russian economy than predicted in the baseline scenario.
The dynamics of the ruble exchange rate will also remain a significant factor affecting inflation dynamics and inflationary expectations.
A further tightening of monetary conditions is therefore possible due to the persistence of a high risk premium in loan rates and to the increase in the requirements of banks vis-à-vis borrowers in a context of high uncertainty.
"This combination could lead to a more significant slowdown in lending activity," explained Bank of Russia, which had significantly revised its medium-term forecasts at its previous meeting in April.
According to the regulator, the Russian economy in 2022 will shrink by 8-10% and in 2023 between 0 and 3%.
The Bank of Russia expects the economy to return to growth in 2024.
Inflation in Russia in 2022 will grow to 18-23%.
The reference rate will drop to 5-7% in 2023 and will return to 4% in 2024.
(ANSA).
