(ANSA) - MILAN, MAY 26 - Moody's cuts global growth estimates for 2022 and 2023 due to supply-side shocks and increased inflation caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and lockdowns China.
The GDP of advanced economies will grow by 2.6%, compared to the 3.2% forecast in March, while the estimates for emerging countries are reduced from + 4.2% to + 3.8%.
Risks of further reductions, says Moody's, could come from "an escalation of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine and a slowdown beyond expectations of Chinese growth".
"With the exception of Russia, we currently do not expect a recession in any of the G-20 countries in 2022 and 2023," said Madhavi Bokil, senior vice president / CSR at Moody's.
"However, there are multiple risks that can put the economic outlook further at risk, including further upward pressure on commodity prices, extended supply chain disruptions or slowdowns in China that are greater than expectations. An aggressive monetary tightening, due to concerns that long-term inflation uncoils, it could in turn become a catalyst for a recession. "
For Moody's the next few months "will be decisive": "if the global economy remains resilient during this period, the path of growth could become more sustainable in the next year".
(HANDLE).
