Granary Ukraine at war, India stops exports - Can wheat be replaced?

Created: 2022-05-27Updated: 2022-05-27 05:41

By: Christoph Gschossmann

Wheat is becoming scarcer and more expensive: Ukraine is at war, India has introduced an export ban.

© Daniel Bockwoldt/dpa

Ukraine resists Russian invasion - with huge economic repercussions.

The country is considered the granary of Europe.

Can we replace wheat at all?

Munich - Anyone who wants to buy flour in the supermarket is confronted with it: droughts and the escalating Ukraine conflict have made grain extremely expensive worldwide.

This increases the risk of poverty and hunger across the planet, as wheat is a staple food for billions of people.

Are there alternatives for this?

Sébastien Abis, head of the agricultural think tank Demeter in Paris and expert at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations, answers the most important questions:

Can wheat be substituted?

"That's very difficult.

Wheat is the most important grain for global food security and is consumed by billions of people in the form of bread, flour or semolina.

It enables people to eat cheaply.

Although maize is produced in large quantities, it is mainly used as animal feed or in industry.”

But wheat has reached a price that makes it unaffordable in countries like Lebanon or Yemen...

“Yes, because it is scarce and cannot be grown everywhere.

Wheat is only produced in the temperate climate zone.

The largest exporters include Russia, Ukraine, the USA and Australia.

The United States has grown less and less wheat in recent years as it switched to corn and soybeans.

The Ukraine recently accounted for 12 to 13 percent of global exports.”

Is the loss of Ukrainian production the only explanation for the current situation?

"No.

In addition, there are worrying climate events with major droughts.

India, for example, which had an exceptionally good crop last year and was able to bring more wheat to market, is facing a terrible drought and will not be able to export.

The prices, which were already high before the war, are exploding: wheat reached a price of 440 euros per tonne on Euronext on Monday.”

Wheat: "The question is whether India will honor its commitments"

The exchange was reacting to India's announcement of a ban on wheat exports...

“India had set a rather ambitious goal of exporting 10 million tons of wheat.

Before the export stop, the country had promised about three to 3.5 million tons.

The question is whether India will honor its commitments.

The situation is tense because no country can provide more than usual for export.

Perhaps Russia will do this if the harvest is good.

Even when the war is over, Ukraine will not immediately regain its previous production and export capacities.”

Will the crisis peak before the summer harvests in the US and Europe?

“The risks are long-term.

We haven't seen all the shocks yet, because in the past two months contracts signed before the Russian invasion have been fulfilled in world markets.

Now the difficult part begins.”

How big are the stocks?

“We have 270 million tons of wheat in stock, but the world consumes 800 million tons a year.

More than half of this is in China, which stockpiles reserves for a year.

With the exception of China, all grain stocks are at their lowest levels in 25 years.

We need international solidarity and cooperation.

We cannot leave countries alone when it comes to food security.

But one should not be surprised if some countries are primarily concerned with themselves.

We have to produce wherever possible, especially in Africa.

But for that we need peace and security.”