It's confirmed.
In the current state of the economy, notably marked by galloping inflation, the purchasing power of French households should contract this year, on average, by 0.8%, according to a study published this Thursday by the French Observatory. economic conditions (OFCE).
And this, despite the measures to support purchasing power already deployed or announced from this summer by the Borne government, for an envelope which should be around 40 billion euros (1.7 points of GDP).
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Estimating inflation at 4.9% over the year (versus 5.2% recorded at the end of May on a year-on-year basis) and GDP growth reduced to 2.4% (compared to 4% anticipated last December in the finance law for 2022),
“this contraction in purchasing power will weigh on the dynamics of recovery through the weak dynamics of household consumption”
, thus judges the OFCE.
And for good reason: to curb inflation, the French should further curb their consumption (which has already fallen by 1.5% from January to March) without drawing on their savings, the level of which should increase further, to reach 16, 7% at the end of the year.
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At the same time, the OFCE expects continued employment growth this year, with 179,000 jobs created, which would stabilize the unemployment rate at 7.3%.
Consequence of this new spending and this growth at half mast: public finances would recover less than expected by the government this year.
The OFCE is counting on a reduction in the deficit from 6.5% to 5.6% (against 5% anticipated by Bercy) and a public debt reduced to 112.1% of GDP (after 112.5% last year) .
