Jean-François Delfraissy had anticipated it for "end of June, beginning of July", then for "end of July".
Ultimately, the reality could be right in between.
The peak of the 7th wave of the Covid-19 epidemic, "carried" by the Omicron BA.5 variant, could be reached in mid-July.
It would then be as high as the previous one, in April (around 130,000 positive cases per day on average).
251,337 positive cases were identified in three days, only 3.3% more than the previous weekend.
Last weekend, the increase was almost 50% compared to the one before.
You always have to be careful, because we have already had a plateau in the past… before a recovery.
But the hope of having soon reached the top of the wave is there.
“The worst that can happen is that it hovers around 0% for several days and then it goes up again.
But that seems quite unlikely, ”even believes Mahmoud Zureik, hospital practitioner in epidemiology and public health.
Asked a few days ago, Arnaud Fontanet, epidemiologist at the Institut Pasteur and member of the scientific council, told us that he "expected to quickly reach a level of provisional population immunity, given the very strong circulation of the virus" .
Thus, SARS-CoV-2 is slowed down because it finds fewer and fewer people who can become infected.
“Post-Omicron immunity is probably quite weak, but it exists”
“Immunity following a first Omicron infection is probably quite weak, but it exists.
This means that people who have already caught it, especially if they had BA.2 in March / April, are less likely to be infected today, ”describes Mahmoud Zureik.
Île-de-France is both one of the regions most affected by this 7th wave, but also among those where the curve seems to bend first.
The incidence rate there is down for the second day in a row, just below 1,400 positive cases over one week per 100,000 inhabitants.
"The latest data suggest a form of slowdown in the Paris region, the most affected by this BA.5 variant", indicated this Monday morning on France Inter the president of the Scientific Council, Jean-François Delfraissy - who should leave his functions at the end of July. .
Jean-François Delfraissy, President of the Scientific Council and immunologist, about the 160,000 Covid contaminations in 24 hours: "We are dealing with a much more transmissible variant (BA5)" In the Paris region, the data suggest "a form of slowdown" # le69Inter pic.twitter.com/aQaW34bTrk
– France Inter (@franceinter) July 11, 2022
“If the peak of identified contaminations is confirmed in the coming days, the peak in the hospital will occur within ten days”, anticipates Mahmoud Zureik.
We could approach 2,000 daily hospital admissions per day, slightly more than the highest level reached in April (1,750).
Not that BA.5 leads to more serious forms than its predecessor BA.2, because no consolidated data points in this direction.
The reason is probably to be found elsewhere: the real number of infections is further underestimated, because more and more people are "tired" of being tested, or residents are less protected due to the decline of the virus. 'immunity.
The campaign for second booster doses of vaccine for those over 60 ended up accelerating, but belatedly.
The hospital, in great difficulty, will therefore continue to absorb an increasingly sustained flow of Covid patients in the coming days.
The peak could also fall at the same time as that of the upcoming heat wave episode, expected on Sunday or next Monday in Île-de-France.
"And unfortunately, it's the same fragile people in both cases," said Mahmoud Zureik.