What would happen if we went to vote today with the Rosatellum?
YouTrend and Cattaneo Zanetto & Co conducted an election simulation with three scenarios:
In scenario A, the Democratic Party presents itself together with the 5 Star Movement and the unitary list of the Italian Left and the Greens, without alliance with the center parties (Action / + Europe and Italia Viva): in this case the center-right would win 221 seats out of 400 at the Chamber and 108 out of 200 in the Senate, thus obtaining an absolute majority to govern in both branches for Parliament.
Room Simulation
But what would change if the 5 Stars did not ally themselves with the center-left made up of PD, Left / Greens, Action / + Europe and Italia Viva?
In this case (scenario B) the center-right would come to have an even larger majority, reaching almost 60% of the seats: 240 in the Chamber and 122 in the Senate.
The split of the yellow-red axis would in fact lead the center-right to win most of the single-member constituencies, since the FdI-Lega-FI coalition would win 116 out of 147 in the Chamber and 59 out of 74 in the Senate.
Simulation B Camera
Only a very large alliance with Pd, M5s, Left / Greens, Action / + Europe and Italia Viva could put the birth of a center-right government in difficulty: in scenario C, the center-right would have 202 deputies and 99 senators.
In these simulations, however, the 8 deputies and 4 senators elected abroad are excluded, so considering the latter the center-right could also reach the threshold of an absolute majority in the Senate: it would however be a very weak majority, even if with more seats in the Giallorossi field. (which would have 187 in Montecitorio and 94 in Palazzo Madama)
Simulation C Camera