House of Death: The next disaster is waiting around the corner, and you can not prevent it

An earthquake is perhaps the most publicized threat to apartment owners in Israel, but there are quite a few other real risks that can destroy your property to the ground.

Experts in real estate and climate explain how scary reality can be, especially in the terrain conditions here

David Rosenthal

21/07/2022

Thursday, July 21, 2022, 12:00 p.m.

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In the video: Demonstration of a "cheering" system that warns of earthquakes (Photo: Roni Knafo)

A few days ago there was an earthquake with a magnitude of 3.1 on the Richter scale, which was another reminder of the deceptive geological reality we live in and the risk posed to us as a result of the impact of natural forces.

The problem is that an earthquake has become synonymous with the only natural disaster that threatens our home and our lives, which is a mistake.

The media intensifies its engagement, but in practice, climatic conditions present us with risks, some of which are no less fatal.

And these are not ideological threats, but dangerous situations whose probability of occurrence is immeasurably higher than you think.

What are we talking about?

With the help of real estate and climate experts, we bring you all the nightmare scenarios: those whose realization will cause damage to thousands of homes, cause billions of shekels in damage and lead to the death of hundreds in Israel.

A surge of water at a speed of almost 1,000 km / h enters your living room

What is the probability that a wave at 900 km / h will hit the shoreline in Israel and make names in thousands of buildings that are 'on the line of fire'? On the face of it, zero probability. History has been documented in the Mediterranean Sea. Up to 9,290 years The study, based on excavations conducted in the Tel Dor area, examined, among other things, sand samples and shells from that period, and shows that the height of the waves was between 16 and 40 meters and the water reached a distance of 1.5 to 3.5 km.

This is an imaginary image, but (Photo: ShutterStock)

Prof. Assaf Yasur-Landau of the Department of Marine Civilizations at the University of Haifa, who participated in the study, tells Walla!

Real estate because they found shells 3 kilometers inland: "It caused enormous damage to communities that lived there, communities of the New Stone Age, the Neolithic period."

And what is the probability that a tsunami will hit Israel again? "A tsunami in Israel is only a matter of time - probability That it will happen is 100%, "explains Dr. Amos Salmon, a senior researcher in the Department of Geological Risks at the Geological Survey of Israel.

Researchers in Israel are unanimous on this issue, and the chief scientist at the Ministry of Environmental Protection warned ten years ago that the Mediterranean is in second place in the world in a number of tsunami events.

So the probability of a tsunami occurring exists, but what is the expectation of the extent and severity of the damage?

In an in-depth study conducted by the Scientific Committee for Formulation of Early Warning Policy and Principles in Israel, it was found that intensive coastal infrastructure construction and dense settlement increase the risk of tsunami damage in present and future Israel significantly over the past. A great tsunami will strike the shores of Israel and make names.

Rain that destroys your home (and life)

About two years ago, two residents of the city of Tel Aviv died after being trapped in an elevator flooded with rainwater.

The incident took place on the minus 1 floor of a building located on Nadav Street in the Hatikva neighborhood of Tel Aviv.

Firefighters and rescue teams under the command of the Tel Aviv station commander located the trapped inside the elevator, which got stuck due to a short circuit, while at the same time the heavy rainstorm caused the sewer to clog and filled the entire floor and elevator with water very quickly.

In the video: young people were trapped in a vehicle in Samaria, flooding in Jerusalem in the south and center, flows in streams and snow on Mount Hermon (Photo: Yaron Kadoshim, Mount Hermon, Nature and Parks Authority, Fire and Rescue Judea and Samaria )

In that case, a sequence of reasons came together into a tragic outcome, however we do not have the privilege of thinking that this is a single and special event.

In practice, this is a trailer for a variety of catastrophes that are expected with a high degree of certainty to drown quite a few Israelis in deadly rain traps.

Accelerating construction in many areas in Israel, along with the cities' approach to riverbeds, creates a huge challenge for drainage systems.

The multiple construction leads to a situation where there is less land available for water to flow and seep.

As a result, millions of cubic meters of rainwater have difficulty draining into streams on their way to the sea, leading to flooding.

The problem is that the growing difficulty of water flow, encounters another problem - climate change.

The intensity of the rain increases from year to year and heavy volleys, which include large amounts of precipitation, fall more frequently.

At the individual level, we as property owners have no real option to defend ourselves and prepare for it.

In fact, Kobi Murad, CEO of Guy Smart Water Solutions, notes that the only option is to drill infiltration pits with a rainwater drainage pipe, which allow the surface runoff to penetrate directly into the groundwater reservoir, preventing future flooding damage, damaging foundations The structure and promotes the enrichment of water sources in the country.In a standard building, it is recommended to build 5 infiltration cisterns and a building located in the Baruch-Mishkeim area may require the construction of 9 cisterns. In addition, according to TMA / 34 / B / 4 A plot of land intended for construction - is vacant, but it is not enough, he notes: "The state, through the local authorities, should encourage drilling of pits even in buildings that are not required to do so,

And what is the government doing to solve the problem?

Not much.

We will start by saying that a necessary and basic component for developing an effective policy on adaptation to the inevitable climate change is the existence of detailed long-term forecasts and climate scenarios, in a targeted manner for our region.

But even though the study of climatic systems has developed greatly over the last few years, Israel is lagging far behind.

In a recent report by the Steering Committee of the Israeli Academy of Sciences for Dealing with the Climate Crisis, the researchers pointed to the dismal situation on the ground: -Worlds performed about ten years ago.

Also, according to the State Comptroller's special audit report on the subject, the state's conduct in reducing flood damage suffers from a lack of nationwide strategic vision, and relies on local authorities and drainage authorities. Over the years, there have been deficiencies in drainage infrastructure, and bridging the gaps requires the allocation of resources. Is that its implementation is expected to take years, and in the meantime, our property, our home and our lives - are promiscuous.

In the best case scenario, 7,000 Israelis will be killed in an earthquake

A devastating earthquake in the State of Israel is not a question of whether, but only of when it will occur.

A reference scenario presented to the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee estimated that about 7,000 people would be killed, tens of thousands would be injured, infrastructure would be damaged, hundreds of thousands of buildings would be damaged and hundreds of thousands would be evacuated from their homes.

In such a scenario, the State of Israel is likely to find itself in a state of ongoing disaster, while the governmental systems will find it difficult to contain and deal with the variety of difficult events.

Not a question of if, but of when (Photo: ShutterStock)

This formidable risk takes on a new meaning in the State Comptroller's report published a few days ago, which presents a very disturbing picture regarding the durability of buildings and houses across the country.

Its results do not give rest.

According to the report, no less than 610,000 housing units in Israel do not meet the standard of an earthquake, and thousands of buildings that have been defined as dangerous are expected to have a high probability of collapsing on their occupants.

The assessment of earthquake damage is mainly based on reference scenarios, in which the location of the earthquake focus and its intensity are assumed, and the extent of the damage is assessed accordingly.

A reference scenario presented to the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee in 2016 estimated that about 7,000 people would be killed, 8,600 seriously injured, 37,000 lightly injured, about 28,600 buildings destroyed, 290,000 buildings slightly damaged and 170,000 women and men evacuated from their homes long term.

Brigadier General (Res.) Zeev Tzuk-Ram, who served as head of the Rachel (National Emergency Authority) for five years, believes that the State of Israel is not prepared in any parameter for a destructive earthquake. Execution and certainly not in disaster-prone areas on this issue.

"Beyond that, all the buildings that passed TMA did not pass the required standard. The construction of two or three floors above old houses as part of the contractors' incentive is clear, but the real infrastructure is quite shaky for additional weight, and in practice no one checks."

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