The ECB decides on rates, a tightening of 50 basis points is feared

The sudden acceleration of 'unfavorable events' on the chapters of inflation, war, gas and above all the Italian political impasse which could be the harbinger of a new debt crisis, complicates the maneuvers of the European Central Bank ready to launch the first hike interest rates for over ten years, since the credit crunch shock.

The two days of the key meeting have begun which will mark a change of pace - while the specter of a recession or, at best, a stagnation hovers over the world economy - but will also reveal if and to what extent the differences within the board they are undermining the credibility of the ECB by leaving it with blunt weapons.

If Frankfurt had so far wisely prepared the ground for an initial tightening of 25 basis points by also putting the protective net of the anti-spread shield on the table, now the picture has become more complicated with the hawk party pressing for a more aggressive tightening 50 basis points and does not welcome the activation of an anti-spread instrument as a form of assistance in the event of internal political turbulence, such as the crisis of the Draghi government.

The Italy case will make a compromise solution on the 'backstop' more thorny and there is the risk that it will be watered down by too many conditionalities, ineffective or not timely.

The euro area annual inflation rate jumped to a record 8.6% in June from 8.1% in May.

A year earlier, the rate was 1.9%.

The energy component and the gas rationing scenario have always had the greatest impact, while the war continues, it has erased any hope that the upward spiral in prices is "transitory", as has been repeatedly assured by central banks.

Hence the pressing for a squeeze of half a point immediately.

ECB President Christine Lagarde will have the difficult task of coagulating consensus and finding the right place in a scenario full of uncertainties, taking care not to overwhelm market expectations.

And at the same time send a reassuring message on the determination to act to avoid shocks and phenomena of 'fragmentation'.

That is to put in place the Transmission protection mechanism (Tpm), read anti-spread shield.

Difficult mediation that risks ending with the 'birth of a mouse'.

A disappointment that could alert the markets and reveal an ECB that is not very credible in its ability to stabilize the imbalances in the periphery of the Eurozone, Italy in the first place.