"Signs of deceleration in economic activity and high and widespread inflation continue to characterize the international scenario. In the second quarter, Italian GDP marked a marked economic acceleration" and the growth achieved is equal to 3.4%.
This was reported by Istat in the monthly note on the Italian economy.
But "
possible declines in manufacturing activity are expected in the coming months
", and "the increase in the trade deficit, the spread of inflation and the marked worsening of consumer confidence represent downside risks for the economic trend".
Still according to Istat, "
the European prospects appear to be progressively worsening
. In July, the composite index of economic confidence ESI recorded by the European Commission reached its lowest level since February 2021 and was one point below the long-term average. The decline was spread to all the main sectors of economic activity and countries in the area, with the exception of France where the indicator decreased only marginally ".
"In the second quarter, the Italian GDP marked a marked acceleration compared to the previous three months (+ 1.0%) as a result of a positive contribution from domestic demand (gross of inventories) and a negative contribution from foreign demand", Istat explains.
At the sectoral level, production increases have been widespread among industry and services while there has been a decline in value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing.
The growth acquired for 2022 (which would be obtained in the presence of a zero cyclical change in the remaining quarters of the year), is equal to 3.4%, a value higher than the recent growth estimates for Italy recently released by the Monetary Fund. international (+ 3.0%).
The growth of
economic activity between April and June was also reflected in the labor market which recorded a widespread improvement in June, with a carry-over effect on the entire second quarter.
Istat recalls that the increase in employment compared to the previous month (+ 0.4%, equal to + 86 thousand units), driven by the component of permanent employees (+ 0.8%, + 116 thousand units), led to employment rate at the highest value since 1977 (60.1%) and was accompanied by a reduction in both unemployment (-0.2%, -4 thousand units) and inactive people aged between 15 and 64 (-0.7% , -91 thousand).
The
prospects for employment
in the coming months they show a substantial stabilization with a more accentuated dynamism in some service sectors, underlines the Institute of Statistics.
In fact, in July, the expectations on employment by companies still maintain a favorable orientation, "marking a significant improvement both in construction and in market services, while among manufacturing companies there is a stabilization in comparison with the average of the second quarter".
Inflation, on the other hand, continues to weigh on the outlook.
"Uncertainty and caution continue to characterize the expectations of consumers and businesses about the evolution of inflation in July as well. The average expectations of those who expect an increase in prices in the coming months rose slightly (28.6 in July from 27,
5 of June).
Among the entrepreneurs who produce goods intended for final consumption, those who foresee reductions in their sales price lists prevail ", underlines Istat.
ANSA agency
Industry: Istat, June production -2.1% but energy + 1.9% - Economy
Istat estimates record positive trend changes in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products and in the production of computers and electronics products.
(HANDLE)