ANSA Lavoro - ROME, AUGUST 19 - The ratio of pension expenses to ePil, which increased again between 2019 and until 2022, with a peak of 17% of GDP in 2020, is destined to fall back to a level of 15.7% in 2022, a value that is more than 0.5 percentage points of GDP higher than the 2018 figure.
This is indicated by the Ministry of the Economy in the report 'Medium-long term trends of the social-health pension system', estimating for 2023 that the expenditure per tension will grow "significantly reaching 16.2% of the PIL".
"The deterioration of the macroeconomic framework and the impact of the shock on commodity prices produces non-negligible effects on spending on tension," notes the report.
"Following the indexation mechanism" of pensions to inflation, pension expenditure in 2023-2024 "increased by more than 0.7 points of GDP compared to the previous forecast".
In practice, over 13 billion.
The effects of this "inflationary shock", it is estimated, "are only slowly reabsorbed" in twenty years, with an average increase of 0.4 GDP points.
Furthermore, if Italy were to find itself in a gas shortage scenario, pension expenditure is destined to increase "quickly, due to the indexation of the treatment to inflation, by 0.7 points in 2023 and 1 point in GDP in 2024. , amounting to 17.1% of GDP ".
If the shock were more severe and prolonged, spending would increase "even more markedly" (+1 point in 2023 and +1.1 in 2024), reaching "a maximum level equal to 17.2% of GDP".
(HANDLE).
