Very high temperatures make fragile people particularly at risk, which can go as far as death.
The summer that is coming to an end, marked by three heat waves in June, July then August, is unfortunately no exception.
Initial data, published this Friday by INSEE, provides the first figures on mortality “probably” linked to the heat wave this summer.
1,750 deaths from all causes were recorded each day (on average) in July, compared to 1,610 in June, when the trend had been downward since the beginning of 2022. This number is also 13 higher % to that recorded in July 2019, the most recent outside the Covid-19 pandemic, which skews comparisons.
In June, we were already at + 4% compared to 2019.
Peak of deaths around July 19
In detail, a peak of more than 2,000 daily deaths was reached around July 19.
This date falls in the middle of the second episode of heat wave, the most intense of the three that have occurred this summer.
However, we are still far from the 3,600 daily deaths at the peak of the August 2003 heat wave. first episode of heat wave from mid-June”, writes the INSEE.
A detailed analysis of the month of July also shows a correlation between the evolution of the average temperature in mainland France and the number of daily deaths.
As we can see on this second graph, the trends of the two curves are similar.
A department-by-department analysis also corroborates this hypothesis.
The territories where the number of deaths recorded in July increased the most compared to that in July 2019 are also, generally, among those where the average temperature has risen the most three years apart.
We can cite, in particular, the Alpes-de-Haute-Provence and Lozère.
However, it is difficult to say with precision, among the “additional” deaths recorded in July compared to normal, which are really due to the heat wave.
One of the reasons is that France was also going through its seventh wave of Covid-19, with a peak around 100 deaths of infected patients every day in mid-July.
Detailed report expected “in October”
Public Health France plans to make public “in October” a specific assessment of mortality this summer taking into account all the heat waves but also the concomitant Covid-19 epidemic, the health agency replied this Friday morning. .
“The idea is not to subtract
(the number of Covid deaths from the total number of deaths)
, because a conjunction of the two heat wave and Covid factors can lead to death in certain cases”, Robin told us at the beginning of August. Lagarrigue, member of the Occupational Health and Environment Department of Public Health France.
Read also Heat wave: how is the number of deaths linked to high heat calculated?
Another comparison is striking.
The number of deaths recorded this summer (from June 1 to August 22) is higher than that over the same period in 2003, a year marked by the terrible heat wave in August: 138,522 versus 133,069. does not mean the heat was more deadly this summer than 19 years earlier.
Several factors, such as the aging of the population, may also explain this increase in the number of deaths.
