They have been rising steadily for several days.
Covid-19 contaminations are increasing again in France, giving weight to those who, in mid-August, announced a probable epidemic peak, or even an eighth wave, after the start of the school year.
“The circulation of SARS-CoV-2 has started to rise again after several weeks of improvement in the epidemic situation”, observes Public Health France in its weekly update.
Thursday, 33,263 new cases of Covid were recorded against 19,866 a week earlier, a jump of more than 67%.
"For two days, the reproduction rate of the virus (the famous R, editor's note) has been greater than 1, which is the robust signal of an epidemic resumption," epidemiologist Mircea Sofonea told AFP, estimating that “the recovery certainly started more than a week ago, but it can only be statistically attested for two days”.
An increase “mainly driven by those under 20”
Another indicator: the number of tests (852,500) increased by 9% the week of September 5 to 11, said Thursday the Drees, the statistical service of the health and social ministries.
They have notably increased sharply among those under 16 (+ 56%).
Evidence that people are experiencing symptoms or are in contact?
“The number of PCR tests is currently not very high and does not allow very reliable analyzes to be made, but the trend seems to confirm at the very least a halt in the epidemic decline and possibly a rebound, a premise for a possible new pandemic wave”, analyzed epidemiologist Antoine Flahault for AFP.
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“The most likely scenario is that of an epidemic peak at the start of the school year”, affirmed Brigitte Autran, who had just been appointed president of the Committee for monitoring and anticipating health risks, the successor to the scientific council.
In support of this prediction, two objective elements, which had already produced the same effects at the start of the 2021 school year: on the one hand, the immune decline of the population, months after having received their last vaccine - only around 30% of the most 60-year-olds received a second booster dose – or their last contamination, and on the other the resumption of school and professional activities, which promote mixing in closed places.
Moreover, the increase in contamination is “mainly driven by those under 20”, starting with 0-9 year olds (+ 111% the week of September 5 to 11), notes Public Health France.
On Wednesday, the World Health Organization (WHO), however, sent a message of hope, deeming the end of the pandemic “within reach” but inviting us not to relax our efforts to achieve it.
In a process of "seizure" of the Covid, countries are now considering an annual vaccination campaign against the coronavirus and its variants.
France, it will make its decision next week on second-generation, so-called bivalent vaccines.