For the three-year period 2022-2024 it is estimated that 82 billion euros are again impaired.
Compared to last February's forecast, an increase of € 10 billion in new flows is assumed with a delay of 6/9 months (peak in 2023), due to persistence - highlights the Banca Ifis Market Watch presented in Cernobbio - the criticality of prices on energy, raw materials and food goods together with the increase in rates following the more restrictive monetary policy.
The increase in non-performing loans will be offset by the continuation of the de-risking process also in line with the plans of the main banks, with an NPE ratio (ratio between impaired loans and total loans disbursed) on the banking system of 3.3% to end of 2024 The deterioration rate of businesses is expected to increase more than in the household segment (in 2023, 4% compared to 2.3%) due to the greater risk associated with ex-moratorium loans.
For this year, 35 billion euros of NPL transactions are also expected, with the secondary market now a significant component (30%).
Disposals of UtP portfolios (very probable defaults) are expected for 12 billion euros, of which 6 billion already finalized in mid-September.
The market will maintain high volumes of NPE also in the two-year period 2023-2024 (47 billion euros in 2023 and 33 billion euros in 2024).
In mid-September 2022, sales for 22 billion euros of NPE (Non Performing Exposures, i.e. the exposure that an institution has towards NPLs) were finalized.
In particular, transactions with Gacs represented 48% of volumes, absorbing 41% of the secured portfolios transacted.
The unsecured component accounted for 48% of the total transaction, to which the gacs (non-performing loan securitization guarantee) of the vehicle Organa SPV of Intesa Sanpaolo contributed, which also included this type of asset.
Prices are slightly higher due to the high incidence of gacs transactions in addition to the effects produced by the 'freshest' unsecured portfolios (maximum 12 months) small denominations which meet the appetite of specialized investors in the segment.
The increase is mitigated by the growing incidence of the secondary market.
Furthermore, from 2022 an increase in the NPE stock is estimated (377 billion euros at the end of 2024) due to the increase in non-performing loans and the reduction in recovery rates, especially on larger tickets and secured loans that require longer recovery times .
The Italian banks achieved an important de-risking result: with an estimated 357 billion euro of NPE portfolios sold.
In detail, 100 investors have operated, employing 90 billion euros over 7 years to acquire non-performing loan portfolios in the primary and secondary market.
Finally, the stock of NPEs in Italy decreased from 361 billion euros in 2015 to 321 billion euros in 2021, thanks to the management carried out by banks, investors and servicers.
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The Italian non-performing loan sector has seen continuous growth in revenues from 2013 to 2021 (+ 90% over the entire period), which will continue with + 9% in 2022 and + 4% in 2023. The development of the non-performing loan sector it meant investments in human resources and technology, drivers of value creation confirmed by the growth of the EBITDA (+ 20% average per year).
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