"The Council of Ministers approved the Update of the Document of Economics and Finance (NADEF) 2022, which outlines the scenario with current legislation without defining the programmatic objectives of public finance for the three-year period 2023-2025".
This was stated in a note from Palazzo Chigi in which it is noted that
the "forecasts are based, as in the previous planning documents, on a prudential approach and do not take into account the economic policy action that can be achieved with the next budget law and with other measures
In Nadef, the estimated GDP growth in 2022 is + 3.3%, with an upward revision compared to the April Def forecasts (+ 3.1%).
In 2023 it will slow down to + 0.6%, and then rise again (in this case the estimates confirm the forecasts of the Def) to + 1.8% in 2024 and + 1.5% in 2025. "The forecast for an increase in GDP for this year it is revised upwards ", reads the document that ANSA was able to view," thanks to the higher than expected growth recorded in the first half of the year and despite the fact that GDP fell slightly in the second half of the year ".
"The update of the forecast also highlights an increase in the path of inflation and wage growth - reads the Update to the Def, examined by the CDM, which ANSA was able to view; however, it continues to be expected that the rate inflation begins to fall by the end of this year. "
The trend net debt in 2022 drops to 5.1% (compared to the 5.6% target indicated in April with the Def) and will stand at 3.4% in 2023, still down from the estimate of the Def (3 , 9%): we still read in the Nadef document.
"In the updated projections for 2022, public finance benefits from the positive trend in revenues and the moderation of primary expenditure recorded so far this year, while it is affected by the impact on debt service of the increase in interest rates and the revaluation of the notional of government bonds indexed to inflation ", he explains.
"The economic forecasts" of Nadef "are based, as in the previous planning documents, on a prudential approach. Even in a difficult context such as the current one, however, there are margins for these forecasts to be exceeded", reads the Update to the Def.
"The next few months will be complex, in light of the geopolitical risks and the likely persistence of energy prices at high levels - reads the Update to the Def approved by the Council of Ministers -. The resources available to the country to relaunch investments public and promoting private ones, both in new plants and in innovation, however, have no precedents in recent history and will be able to give rise to sustainable and high growth, so as to put an end to the long phase of substantial stagnation of the economy ".
The debt / GDP ratio is expected to decline sharply this year, to 145.4% (from 150.3% in 2021), even more than the April estimate (146.8%).
The downward path will continue in the following years until reaching 139.3% in 2025 (141.2% the estimate of the Def): in 2023 the debt is estimated at 143.2% (from 145% of the April estimate) and in 2024 to 140.9% (143.2% in the April Def estimate).
The Italian economy recorded six quarters of growth above expectations;
the prospects are now less favorable due to the marked slowdown in the global and European economies, mainly linked to the increase in energy prices, inflation and the geopolitical situation, underline from Palazzo Chigi after the green light of the Council of ministers to Nadef.