How bad will Corona be this year? These are the pandemic modelers' scenarios for the winter

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Advent season in Munich 2021: New variant or no new variant?

Photo: Wolfgang Maria Weber / IMAGO

Compared to the past winters, German researchers are relatively optimistic about the possible corona situation at the end of 2022. This is reported by physicist Viola Priesemann from the Max Planck Institute via Twitter.

The basis is modeling of possible courses of the corona pandemic, which was developed by the modeling network for serious infectious diseases.

The research networks are coordinated by the University Medicine Halle, which has published a communication on the models.

Accordingly, the decisive factor for the further development of the pandemic is whether there will be a new virus variant.

It is said that a large part of the population has been fundamentally immunized against Covid-19 through vaccinations and infections.

The protection against a severe course of a corona infection with the variants currently widespread in Germany is therefore relatively good, according to Alexander Kuhlmann, head of the coordination center in Halle.

“However, if a new virus variant emerges that partially circumvents the acquired immune protection of the population, the situation could worsen,” he said.

The designed scenarios pick up on this:

1. Scenario: No new virus variant

The first scenario is intended to forecast the course of the pandemic in the event that no new virus variant emerges.

According to the modeling network, a wave of infections is to be expected in this case “which is unlikely to lead to an excessive burden on hospitals”.

However, due to a large number of infections, the shortage of personnel in the critical infrastructure could worsen.

2. Scenario: New virus variant

In the second scenario, the researchers assume that a new virus variant will prevail that partially bypasses the immune system but does not have a higher risk of developing a severe disease.

Such a variant would probably place a similar burden on the healthcare system as the omicron wave did at the beginning of 2022 at the time of its greatest spread.

3rd scenario: New virus variant with increased risk of disease

In the third scenario, a new virus variant that circumvents the immune protection also prevails.

In this case, however, the possible new variant leads to a more severe course of the disease.

The researchers compare this with the delta variant from the second half of 2021. They conclude: "In this case, the peak values ​​​​of hospital exposure achieved so far during the pandemic could be significantly exceeded." According to the physicist Priesemann, who was involved in the models, If protective measures are necessary if overloading is to be avoided.

What's the conclusion?

According to the modeling network, all scenarios are possible, probabilities for their occurrence could not be given.

Germany is currently in the first scenario, writes Priesemann on Twitter.

Accordingly, it is not yet clear whether a relevant new variant will prevail.

“But that can change at any time.

There are enough virus variant candidates,” says Priesemann.

If such a variant exists, the situation must be reassessed.

"Until then, the following applies: At least in terms of Corona, we see the winter relatively positively - in the sense that no strong measures are necessary as of 'now'," writes Priesemann.

The modeling network also said the simulations showed that a vaccination campaign starting in October would significantly reduce the number of people requiring hospital treatment for Covid-19.

In the third scenario in particular, however, it may be that a change in the vaccination strategy is not sufficient to remain below the previous peak values ​​for hospital occupancy.

ptz