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Virologist Christian Drosten on the change in the corona virus
Photo: Political Moments / IMAGO
The virologist Christian Drosten sees a change in the corona pandemic.
In an interview with Die Zeit, Drosten said the end of the pandemic was imminent.
Even new virus mutations could no longer prevent this.
The rapid succession of this year's corona waves can be explained by the fact that the R value of the virus, i.e. the number of people infected by an infected person, has fallen significantly.
"Now it's no longer over two like it used to be, but around one - even without protective measures," says Drosten.
As a result, factors that had previously been of minor importance had a greater impact on new infections.
For example the weather conditions: If it is cold and wet, Covid has an easier time, but if it is warmer and dry for a while, the infections decrease significantly.
"The situation for the virus is becoming precarious," said Drosten.
He is confident that no new, significantly more dangerous variants will develop in the short term, and even expects a decrease in virulence in the medium term.
The winter will therefore bring another wave of corona with it, albeit with weaker and weaker reactions in those infected, since there are now various types of immune protection through vaccinations and surviving infections.
So Covid-19 is on the way to becoming endemic, similar to the flu virus.
For the virologist, the course of winter also depends on which corona variant prevails next: “Two omicron variants are starting up right now: BF.7 and BQ.1.1” If the omicron derivative BQ.1.1 becomes dominant, “could the winter will be difficult again," said Drosten.
But he also sees the possibility of a gentle winter wave.
The virologist also does not rule out an early end to the obligation to isolate in the event of a corona infection.
"If it can be stated that Sars-CoV-2 is an endemic virus, then we will deal with it like other diseases," said Drosten.
»There is no obligation to isolate influenza either.«
New virus strains would be really dangerous
A new large wave of infection can only arise if the virus no longer develops along the current mutations, but can spread and change again in a region of the world with little immunity.
"It would take a kind of revolution, through renewed massive distribution somewhere in the world where this is still possible," said Drosten.
"That's how it was with the previous variants that started global waves."
This is possible, for example, in some regions of Africa or in China.
However, he does not expect such a development - if it comes - in the near future, said Drosten.
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