ECB: hypothesis to stop rate hikes if there is a deep recession

2022-11-24T16:26:56.998Z

In the event of a mild recession, the ECB "should continue to normalize monetary policy", but "might decide to pause if there is a deep and prolonged recession" (ANSA)

The ECB,

in the event of a mild recession, "should continue to normalize monetary policy" with high rates

, but

"could decide to pause if there were a deep and prolonged recession

": this is one of the arguments put forward in the Governing Council at the end of October , according to the central bank's meeting report released today.

Under the current conditions, "all members of the Council agreed that it is right to continue normalizing monetary policy by removing the accommodation".

Low growth of the economy and a high inflation rate are expected

, even if, from the middle of next year, the

latter should start to decrease

: right now

we are close to its peak

And there will

likely be a recession for the euro area;

however

the prospects are better than previous forecasts

there will be no energy rationing and a drop in

energy prices is already underway.

The forecasts of the ECB and the EU go in the same direction, towards low growth of the European economy and high inflation

This was stated by the vice president of the ECB Luis Guindos during the analysis of the Milan Forum.

"The situation of the banks is good - he explains - better than a few years ago" while "the greatest concern is for non-banking businesses and low-income families".

In this context, "fiscal policies are important and must be careful, selective and geared towards growth".

"Inflation to start easing in first half of next year"

ECB vice president Luis de Guindos affirms at the Analysis Forum in Milan" "Perhaps we are

very close to the peak

- he explains - it depends on many factors, including the trend in interest rates, on which it is very difficult to make a decision".

Growth in the euro area, after stagnating in the third quarter, "for the next two quarters points towards a decline in economic activity".

This is what emerges from the ECB meeting at the end of October according to the minutes of the meeting.

The summary made by chief economist Philip Lane, however, indicates that

thanks to the fall in energy prices in recent weeks, and the lack of energy rationing that had been assumed, "it is a very different scenario from that of a prolonged period of negative growth"

and from the adverse scenario described in the September ECB macroeconomic estimates.

The reduction of the ECB's budget is on its way: underlines de Guindos

"In December there will be a discussion on the ECB's budget - he explains - and we are moving towards a normalization of financial policy, which is positive".

"The Central Banks - he adds - know what is happening around".

De Guindos then reiterated that the ECB's commitment is to "keep inflation under control to support stability".

Source: ansa

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